| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in New Hampshire |
---|
The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]
A New England state dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in almost every presidential election since the party's formation up until 1988, except for nationwide landslides by Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916; Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936, 1940 and 1944; and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Since the early 1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the federal level, with Democrats carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2000. New Hampshire is a potential battleground state due to the closeness of the 2016 election and a concurrent gubernatorial election which is expected to be competitive. However, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level in recent years, as New Hampshire's congressional delegation, which is currently all Democrats, won reelection by comfortable margins in the 2022 House and Senate elections in spite of the national Republican advantage that year. As such, the Democratic candidate is considered the favorite to win in New Hampshire in 2024. [2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [3]
New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.
Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024. [4]
On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes) [5] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23. [4] [6] [7]
Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot. [8] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding. [9]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden (incumbent; write-in) | 79,100 | 63.8% | |||
Dean Phillips | 24,377 | 19.7% | |||
Marianne Williamson | 5,016 | 4.0% | |||
Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) | 4,760 | 3.8% | |||
Donald Trump (write-in) (Republican) | 2,079 | 1.7% | |||
Derek Nadeau | 1,616 | 1.3% | |||
" Ceasefire" (write-in) [10] | 1,512 | 1.2% | |||
Vermin Supreme | 912 | 0.7% | |||
John Vail | 685 | 0.6% | |||
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) | 439 | 0.4% | |||
Donald Picard | 371 | 0.3% | |||
Paperboy Prince | 326 | 0.3% | |||
Paul V. LaCava | 176 | 0.1% | |||
Jason Michael Palmer | 142 | 0.1% | |||
President R. Boddie | 136 | 0.1% | |||
Mark Stewart Greenstein | 133 | 0.1% | |||
Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) | 125 | 0.1% | |||
Terrisa Bukovinac | 101 | <0.1% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 86 | <0.1% | |||
Stephen P. Lyons | 80 | <0.1% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 73 | <0.1% | |||
Tom Koos | 71 | <0.1% | |||
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato | 68 | <0.1% | |||
Star Locke | 59 | <0.1% | |||
Raymond Michael Moroz | 52 | <0.1% | |||
Eban Cambridge | 47 | <0.1% | |||
Chris Christie (write-in) (Republican) | 41 | <0.1% | |||
Richard Rist | 37 | <0.1% | |||
Ron DeSantis (write-in) (Republican) | 33 | <0.1% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (write-in) (Republican) | 2 | <0.1% | |||
Other write-ins [a] | 1,341 | 1.1% | |||
Total: | 123,996 | 100.00% | |||
Source: [11] |
No delegates were awarded from the January New Hampshire primary.
The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, defeating Nikki Haley by eleven points.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegate count [14] |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 176,391 | 54.35% | 13 |
Nikki Haley | 140,491 | 43.28% | 9 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 2,241 | 0.69% | |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,493 | 0.46% | |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 833 | 0.26% | |
Joe Biden (Write-In) (Democrat) | 497 | 0.15% | |
Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 404 | 0.12% | |
Ryan Binkley | 315 | 0.10% | |
Mary Maxwell | 287 | 0.09% | |
Robert F. Kennedy (Write-In) (Independent) | 205 | 0.06% | |
Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 196 | 0.06% | |
Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 180 | 0.06% | |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 108 | 0.03% | |
Rachel Swift | 105 | 0.03% | |
Scott Ayers | 80 | 0.02% | |
Dean Philips (Write-In) (Democrat) | 79 | 0.02% | |
Darius Mitchell | 74 | 0.02% | |
Glenn McPeters | 49 | 0.02% | |
" Ceasefire" (Write-In) | 34 | 0.01% | |
Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 26 | 0.01% | |
Peter Jedick | 25 | 0.01% | |
David Stuckenberg | 25 | 0.01% | |
Donald Kjornes | 23 | 0.01% | |
Scott Merrell | 21 | 0.01% | |
John Anthony Castro | 19 | 0.01% | |
Robert Carney | 15 | <0.01% | |
Marianne Williamson (Write-In) (Democrat) | 14 | <0.01% | |
Hirsh Singh (withdrawn) | 9 | <0.01% | |
Sam Sloan | 7 | <0.01% | |
Vermin Supreme (Write-In) (Democrat) | 3 | <0.01% | |
Mark Steward Greenstein (Write-In) (Democrat) | 1 | <0.01% | |
Other write-in votes | 325 | 0.10% | |
Total: | 324,575 | 100.00% | 22 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [15] | Likely D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [16] | Lean D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] | Lean D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/ The Hill [18] | Lean D | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis [19] | Likely D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [20] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist [21] | Tossup | June 20, 2024 |
538 [22] | Lean D | June 14, 2024 |
RCP [23] | Lean D | June 26, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,140 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 45% | 3% |
Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Saint Anselm College | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
Emerson College | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
co/efficient | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
University of Massachusetts Lowell | October 14–25, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Emerson College | October 18–19, 2022 | 727 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
Emerson College | September 14–15, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
University of New Hampshire | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 43% | 8% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – |
Saint Anselm College [A] | May 7–10, 2021 | 1,267 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 43% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | May 16–20, 2024 | 1,140 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 41% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | May 15–20, 2024 | 862 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 37% | 37% | 15% | 11% |
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov | May 6–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 42% | 36% | 11% | 11% |
Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 41% | 12% | 3% |
Saint Anselm College | December 18–19, 2023 | 1,711 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 39% | 8% | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other /
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 9–11, 2023 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 39% | 5% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other /
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College | January 15–17, 2024 | 1,157 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,108 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 50% | 33% | 15% [c] | 5% |
Saint Anselm College | June 21–23, 2023 | 1,065 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 10 | 2% |
Emerson College | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 14% | 7% |
University of New Hampshire | June 16–20, 2022 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Vivek Ramaswamy Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 20% | 15% [d] | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Tim Scott Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 34% | 14% [e] | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Chris Christie Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 44% | 20% | 27% [f] | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire/CNN | September 14–18, 2023 | 2,018 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 49% | 20% | 25% [g] | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Chris Sununu Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | March 3–5, 2023 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 44% | 14% | 6% |
co/efficient | January 25–26, 2023 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 3.15% | 36% | 48% | – | 16% |
Praecones Analytica | April 14–16, 2022 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 36% | 53% | – | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 10–12, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Bernie Sanders Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47.6% | 42.5% | 9.8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Elizabeth Warren Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | November 10–13, 2023 | 917 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |