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Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [1]
Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s, as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election since 2008 by less than a 4% margin each time, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal race in North Carolina since Obama's victory. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 (the only one of the last four elections where the winner won over 50% of the state's vote) and has been narrowly won by the Republican candidate in every presidential election since then.
It was the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and an upcoming race for a new governor coinciding with the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as narrowly leaning towards the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump). [2] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot. [3]
Incumbent president Biden is running for reelection to a second term.
In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures. [4] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate, [5] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline. [6]
The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges. [5] [7] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves. [5]
In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option. [8]
The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 609,680 | 87.27% | 113 | ||
No Preference | 88,900 | 12.73% | |||
Total: | 698,580 | 100.00% | 132 | 132 | |
Source: [9] |
The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 793,978 | 73.84% | 62 | 62 | |
Nikki Haley | 250,838 | 23.33% | 12 | 12 | |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 14,740 | 1.37% | |||
No Preference | 7,448 | 0.69% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,418 | 0.32% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 3,166 | 0.29% | |||
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 916 | 0.09% | |||
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 727 | 0.07% | |||
Total: | 1,075,231 | 100.00% | 74 | 74 | |
Source: [10] |
The North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot. [11]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
None of the Above | 2,058 | 40.5% |
Chase Oliver | 676 | 13.3% |
Jacob Hornberger | 357 | 7.0% |
Joshua Smith | 354 | 7.0% |
Michael Rectenwald | 195 | 3.8% |
Charles Ballay | 183 | 3.6% |
Lars Mapstead | 176 | 3.5% |
Mike ter Maat | 137 | 2.7% |
Other [a] | 946 | 18.7% |
Total: | 5,082 | 100.0% |
Source: [12] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [13] | Lean R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [14] | Tilt R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15] | Lean R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/ The Hill [16] | Lean R | May 30, 2024 |
CNalysis [17] | Tilt R | May 23, 2024 |
CNN [18] | Lean R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist [19] | Lean R | June 12, 2024 |
538 [20] | Lean R | June 14, 2024 |
RCP [21] | Tossup | June 26, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spry Strategies | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
East Carolina University | May 31 – June 3, 2024 | 1,332 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
North Star Opinion Research (R) [A] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Rasmussen Reports (R) [B] | May 26–27, 2024 | 1,053 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
Change Research (D) [C] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Prime Group [D] | May 9–16, 2024 | 472 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
High Point University | May 5–9, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% [c] | 48% | – | ||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
Mason-Dixon | April 9–13, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
High Point University | March 22–30, 2024 | 829(RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 42% | 14% |
Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
SurveyUSA [E] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Cygnal (R) [F] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 40% | 22% [d] |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 5–10, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 43% | 38% | 20% |
Change Research (D) [G] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Prime Group [H] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 54% | 46% | – |
500 (RV) | – | 45% | 37% | 18% [e] | ||
Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 40% | 18% |
Cygnal (R) [F] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Differentiators (R) [I] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
SurveyUSA | September 28 – October 2, 2022 | 918 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Emerson College | September 15–16, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
East Carolina University | September 7–10, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Blueprint Polling (D) | August 4–6, 2022 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 39% | 17% |
PEM Management Corporation (R) [J] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
East Carolina University | May 19–20, 2022 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 37% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Star Opinion Research (R) [A] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 10% |
Prime Group [D] | May 9–16, 2024 | 472 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Wall Street Journal | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 34% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 45% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 44% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spry Strategies | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 37% | 8% | 10% |
Change Research (D) [C] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 38% | 11% | 10% |
Cygnal (R) [K] | May 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 38% | 9% | 10% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 2–4, 2024 | 700 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 7% | 12% |
Meeting Street Insights (R) [L] | April 25–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 35% | 11% | 14% [f] |
Meredith College | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 39% | 9% | 11% |
Cygnal (R) [F] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 11% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 14–17, 2024 | 642 (LV) | – | 43% | 39% | 8% | 10% |
Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 11% | – |
North Star Opinion Research [M] | January 30 – February 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 32% | 16% | 13% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,220 (LV) | – | 37% | 33% | 11% | 19% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 44% | 35% | 8% | 13% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 41% | 38% | 9% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 33% | 9% | 2% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina University | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 32% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 16% |
Fox News | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 33% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 36% | 33% | 12% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 40% | 13% |
Cygnal (R) [F] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Differentiators (R) [I] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [b] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R) [F] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 20% |