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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]
Minnesota is a slightly to moderately blue state and has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state, as it has not voted for a Republican for president since Richard Nixon won the state in his 1972 49-state landslide. Despite this, Minnesota is not usually seen as safely blue and could be targeted by both parties in 2024: no presidential Democrat since landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson (who ran with favorite son Hubert Humphrey) in 1964 has hit 55% of the vote in the state, with the only ones even carrying the state by double digits since then being Humphrey in 1968, Jimmy Carter (who shared the ticket with favorite son Walter Mondale) in 1976, Bill Clinton in both of his 1990s nationwide victories, and fellow Midwesterner Barack Obama in 2008; in addition, the state was particularly close in 1984 (in which the state narrowly handed Mondale his only state victory), 2000, 2004 and 2016 (where presumptive 2024 GOP nominee Donald Trump narrowly lost the state by 1.5% and less than 45,000 votes). Minnesota is considered to be a swing state in this election.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [2] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot. [3]
The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 232,846 | 68.94% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
Nikki Haley | 97,182 | 28.77% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 4,085 | 1.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,470 | 0.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,431 | 0.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Write-ins | 720 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 337,014 | 100.00% | 39 | 0 | 39 |
Sources: [4] [5] |
The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 171,278 | 70.1% | 64 | 64 | |
Uncommitted | 45,914 | 18.8% | 11 | 11 | |
Dean Phillips | 18,960 | 7.8% | |||
Marianne Williamson | 3,459 | 1.4% | |||
Write-in votes | 2,000 | 0.8% | |||
Jason Palmer | 758 | 0.3% | |||
Cenk Uygur | 692 | 0.3% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 372 | 0.2% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 323 | 0.1% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 290 | 0.1% | |||
Eban Cambridge | 235 | 0.1% | |||
Total: | 244,281 | 100% | 75 | 17 | 92 |
Source: [6] |
The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Krystal Gabel (withdrew) | 759 | 28.84% | - | ||
Dennis Schuller | 459 | 17.44% | 7 | ||
Vermin Supreme | 397 | 15.08% | 6 | ||
Rudy Reyes | 365 | 13.87% | 5 | ||
Edward Forchion | 168 | 6.38% | 2 | ||
Willie Nelson (write-in) | 19 | 0.72% | 0 | ||
Other write-ins | 465 | 17.67% | - | ||
Total: | 2,632 | 100.00% | 20 | ||
Source: [7] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [8] | Likely D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [9] | Lean D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/ The Hill [11] | Lean D | June 21, 2024 |
CNalysis [12] | Likely D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [13] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist [14] | Tossup | June 14, 2024 |
538 [15] | Lean D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP [16] | Tossup | June 26, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% [b] | 49% | – | ||
SurveyUSA [A] | June 12–16, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 41% | 12% [c] |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [B] | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
SurveyUSA [A] | May 8–11, 2024 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 42% | 14% [d] |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
SurveyUSA [A] | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 14% [e] |
SurveyUSA [A] | February 23–28, 2024 | 1,603 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
SurveyUSA [A] | January 24–29, 2024 | 1,594 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Embold Research/MinnPost | November 14–17, 2023 | 1,519 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [B] | June 9–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [B] | April 29 – May 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon [C] | June 3–5, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 6% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |