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Elections in Arkansas |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arkansas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]
Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his election bids in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas is a Southern state entrenched in the Bible Belt. It has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century, with Al Gore (from neighboring Tennessee) losing the state in 2000 by 5.45%. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas, or even win more than 40% of the state vote, was John Kerry in 2004. The state's rightward shift continued under Barack Obama, leading to Arkansas becoming a Republican stronghold at the presidential level in 2008, despite Obama decisively winning nationwide.
The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%. Trump again easily won the state again by 27.6% in 2020. Republicans have held every statewide elected position in the state since 2015. [2] Now a strongly red state, Arkansas is expected to be easily won by the Republican candidate (presumably Trump) in 2024. [3]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [4]
The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 71,978 | 88.5% | 31 | ||
Marianne Williamson | 3,883 | 4.8% | |||
Dean Phillips | 2,346 | 2.9% | |||
Stephen Lyons | 1,442 | 1.8% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 879 | 1.1% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 786 | 1.0% | |||
Total: | 81,314 | 100.00% | 37 | 37 | |
Source: [5] |
The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 204,898 | 76.89% | 39 | 39 | |
Nikki Haley | 49,085 | 18.42% | 1 | 1 | |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 7,377 | 2.77% | |||
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,162 | 1.19% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 860 | 0.32% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 600 | 0.23% | |||
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 183 | 0.07% | |||
Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.06% | |||
David Stuckenberg | 151 | 0.06% | |||
Total: | 266,473 | 100.00% | 40 | 40 | |
Source: [6] [7] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [8] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [9] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/ The Hill [11] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis [12] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist [14] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
538 [15] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
RCP [16] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 435 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 57% | 24% | 19% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 58% | 33% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 49% | 31% | 20% |