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Elections in Vermont |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Vermont voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]
As a state in northern New England, Vermont was historically a moderate/liberal “Yankee Republican” stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H.W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988: Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters combined with the national GOP's continued shift to the political right have turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential race starting in 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000.
Vermont was Biden's strongest state in 2020, with a margin of 35.4%. Today a strongly blue state and one of the most progressive states in the U.S., Vermont is favored to remain comfortably in the Democratic presidential column in 2024. [2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [3]
The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary. [4]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Nikki Haley | 36,241 | 49.32% | 9 | 9 | |
Donald Trump | 33,162 | 45.13% | 8 | 8 | |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,020 | 1.39% | |||
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 949 | 1.29% | |||
Write-in votes | 586 | 0.80% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 546 | 0.74% | |||
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 278 | 0.38% | |||
Overvotes | 51 | 0.07% | |||
Blank ballots | 654 | 0.89% | |||
Total: | 73,487 | 100.00% | 17 | 17 | |
Source: [5] |
The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 56,924 | 82.98% | 16 | ||
Marianne Williamson | 2,873 | 4.19% | |||
Dean Phillips | 1,942 | 2.83% | |||
Other write-ins | 1,260 | 1.84% | |||
Mark Greenstein | 779 | 1.14% | |||
Rashida Tlaib (write-in) | 763 | 1.11% | |||
Cenk Uygur | 700 | 1.02% | |||
"Blank" (write-in) | 556 | 0.81% | |||
Jason Palmer | 404 | 0.59% | |||
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) | 322 | 0.47% | |||
Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) | 288 | 0.42% | |||
Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) | 187 | 0.27% | |||
Overvotes | 73 | 0.10% | |||
Blank ballots | 1,525 | 2.22% | |||
Total: | 68,599 | 100% | 16 | 8 | 24 |
Source: [6] [7] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [8] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [9] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/ The Hill [11] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis [12] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [13] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist [14] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
538 [15] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP [16] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample
size [a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research | February 29 - March 3, 2024 | 117 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 58% | 28% | 14% |
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research | February 29 - March 3, 2024 | 111 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 59% | 28% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size [a] | Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies | April 13 - 21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 42% | - |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample
size [a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies | April 13 - 21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 29% | - |