Incumbent president
Joe Biden, a member of the
Democratic Party, initially
ran for re-election and became the party's
presumptive nominee on March 12.[2][3] However, following a poor performance in the
June 2024 presidential debate and increasing
age and health concerns,
he withdrew on July 21 and endorsed Vice President
Kamala Harris, who launched
her presidential campaign the same day.[4] Due to concerns regarding ballot deadlines in Ohio,[5] the Democratic Party held a virtual vote for the party's nomination prior to the party's convention, in which Harris secured a majority of delegates, officially becoming the party's presumptive nominee.[6] Biden's withdrawal makes him the first eligible incumbent president since
Lyndon B. Johnson in
1968 not to run for re-election, and the first ever to withdraw after securing enough delegates to win the nomination.[7] Harris will presumably be the first nominee who did not participate in the
primaries as a presidential candidate since
Hubert Humphrey, also in
1968.[8]
Article Two of the
United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a
natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The
Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of
primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential
running mate to form that party's
ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. If no candidate wins a majority of their party's delegates' votes, or (in this election) a party's presumptive nominee drops out of the race between the primaries and the convention, a
brokered convention may be held: the delegates are then "released" and are free to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.[35]
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the
Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[36]
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining
Grover Cleveland who did so
in 1892.[37]
Trump has made false claims of
voter fraud in the
2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of June 2024[update].[45][46] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[47]The New York Times has reported that "the Republican Party and its conservative allies are engaged in an unprecedented legal campaign targeting the American voting system" by restricting voting for partisan advantage ahead of Election Day and preparing to mount "legally dubious" challenges against the certification process if Trump loses.[48] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election in the event of a Trump defeat.[49][50][51]
The claims have been made as part of a larger
election denial movement in the United States.[12] Trump has continued spreading his "
Big Lie" of a
stolen election and has predicted without evidence that the 2024 election would be rigged against him. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his
criminal trials.[11] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[52]
Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[53][54] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[a] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[61] his plan to use the
Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military in Democratic cities and states,[62][63]attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued
Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Trump's baseless predictions of voter fraud in the 2024 election,[64] and Trump's public embrace and celebration of the
January 6 United States Capitol attack,[65] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[66][67][68][69] Trump's political operation said that it plans to deploy more than 100,000 attorneys and volunteers to polling places across battleground states, with an "election integrity hotline" for poll watchers and voters to report alleged voting irregularities.[70]
Interference by foreign nations
Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative
AI."[71] On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[72] According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[73][74]
Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump
According to an April 2024
Reuters/
Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[85] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[84] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[86] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[87]
Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, then on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[88][89]
On July 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court delivered its 6–3 decision in Trump v. United States, along ideological lines, ruling that Trump had absolute immunity for acts he committed as president within his core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[90][91][92] Thus, Trump's sentencing date for his convictions in New York was delayed from July to September 2024,[93] and likely the trial dates in Trump's other cases will be delayed as well, to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's decision.[94][95]
Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election.[96][97] The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.[98][99] Trump has increasingly embraced extremism, conspiracy theories such as
Q-Anon, and far-right
militia movements to a greater extent than any modern American president.[100][101] Trump has espoused dehumanizing, combative, and violent rhetoric and promised retribution against his political enemies.[109] Trump has played down but refused to rule out violence following the 2024 election, stating "it depends".[110]
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the
reapportionment of votes in the
United States Electoral College following the
2020 United States census.[115][116] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[117]
Most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind a major party. Because of the nature of the
Electoral College, this means a limited number of
swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties – are vital to winning the presidency. These include states in the
Rust Belt, such as
Wisconsin,
Michigan, and
Pennsylvania, and in the
Sun Belt, such as
Nevada,
Arizona, and
Georgia.[118] Strategists in both parties have stated the election will be decided by about 6% of voters, about 80,000 voters, in these 6 states.[119]
The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, has had relatively high support among
Black voters;[124][125] voters who have attended college[126] or who live in
urban areas.[127] Some
working class voters since the 1970s, have drifted towards Republican candidates as some Democratic candidates moved to the left on cultural issues.[128] The traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is composed mainly of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[129] Republicans had historically performed well with
suburban,
middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years, due to the rise of the
Make America Great Again movement.[130] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the
2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat
Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[131]
Some polling for this election has indicated Democratic strength among
Hispanic,
Asian,
Arab, and
youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 appears to be slipping.[132][133][134][135][136][needs update] However, some political analysts[137] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[138] and heavy non-response bias.[139][140][141][142]
Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign.[24] This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[143] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—
Amy Coney Barrett,
Brett Kavanaugh, and
Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[144]
Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[147][148] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[149]
Border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[150][151] Polling has shown that a majority of Americans want to reduce immigration into the country[152] and that a substantial minority are concerned about
white demographic decline.[153] In 2023 and early 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[154] By June 2024, illegal crossings reached a three-year low following four consecutive monthly drops, which senior U.S. officials attributed to increased enforcement between the United States and Mexico, the weather, and Biden's
executive order increasing asylum restrictions.[155] In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to secure the border that included many conservative demands and also unlocked aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the bill was opposed by Trump who claimed it would hurt Republicans' ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[156][157][158][159][160][161]
Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[162] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[163]The New York Times reported that Trump is considering "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," such as "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[162] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[149] Trump has made false claims of a "migrant crime wave" that are not supported by national data.[164]
Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president,[162] and has drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to some illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals".[165][166][167] Since fall 2023,[168] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to
racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[169][170][168][105] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[171][165][104][105][106][107]
Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like
Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[172]
Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[26][27] In 2023, the United States saw a record in crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency.[173] America also dealt with supply shocks caused by the
2021–2024 global energy crisis due to the
COVID-19 pandemic and
Russian invasion of Ukraine.[174]
Trump has
ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change[175][176][177] and repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "
drill, baby, drill."[178] Trump says he will increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[179] Trump has promised to roll back electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the
Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[179][180] Trump has stated his intention to roll back parts of the 2022
Inflation Reduction Act,[181] which was the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history.[182]
Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[183]
Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[184][185][186]Liberals tend to believe that
conservatives are threatening the country with
Christian nationalistautocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[187] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former
impeachment and
four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[188] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.[77][11] Trump has repeated
false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him.[189]
Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[203][204][205] Increasing inflation has become a more common critique of Trump's economic plans.[206][207][208][209] In June 2024, 16
Nobel Prize in Economics laureates signed an open letter arguing that Trump's fiscal and trade policies coupled with efforts to limit the Federal Reserve's independence would reignite inflation in the United States.[210][211][212] Most economists surveyed by the WSJ in July 2024 found that inflation would be worse under Trump compared to Biden, due in part to tariffs, a crack down on illegal immigration, and larger deficits.[213]
Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[214] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation.[215] Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[216] of 10% on all imports,[217] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[179] Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[217] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[179]The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[218] Trump's trade policies have been described as
protectionist,[219]neomercantilist or
autarkist.[216][220]
Republican candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of
critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of
racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[221][222][31] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they
whitewash American history and act as
memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[223] Trump has pledged to terminate the
Department of Education,[179] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[224]
Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its
isolationist "
America First" foreign policy agenda,[226][227] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate"
NATO's purpose and mission, shifting the nation's defense burdens from Europe towards Asia.[179] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[228] Trump has said he would cut off aid to Ukraine quickly if reelected.[229] Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize
Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[230] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[226]
Kennedy condemned Hamas's attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[231]
Polling has indicated a significant divide between
government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public.[232] During the election, several pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian
protests occurred in the United States. Before dropping out, Biden voiced support for the right to protest but criticized when they became violent or antisemitic.[233] Trump has stated he would shut down
Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."[234]
Trump has made repealing the
Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[33] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as
Social Security and
Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[237][238]
Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[239] West is running on a platform of
Medicare-for-all.[240]
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that Democrats say restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[241][242] Trump has promised a rollback on Democratic-supported policies surrounding transgender individuals.[243] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's
Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[244] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[245] Trump has pledged "severe consequences" for teachers who "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously withdrew Title IX provisions that allowed transgender youth to have access to the bathrooms of their choice, and he attempted to roll-back several transgender-related policies in the
Affordable Care Act.[243]
On April 25, 2023, President
Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President
Kamala Harris as his running mate.[246][247] Republicans intensified their criticism of Harris after Biden declared his intention to run for office.[248] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[249] and
RepresentativesCarolyn Maloney,
Tim Ryan and former Representative
Joe Cunningham (all Democrats), publicly urged Biden not to run.[250][251][252]
In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many were concerned about his age; he was
the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would have been 86 at the end of his second term.[253] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans — including 51 percent of Democrats — believed Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the
FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's approval rating was 41 percent, while 55 percent disapproved.[254] There was also speculation that Biden might face a primary challenge from a member of the
Democratic Party's progressive faction.[255][256] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the
2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[257]
Author
Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[258] In April 2023,
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[259] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[260] Representative
Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[261] Venture capitalist
Jason Palmer announced his campaign on October 22.[262]
Williamson announced her initial withdrawal on February 7, 2024,[263] though she resumed her campaign a few weeks later.[264] On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on
Super Tuesday,[265] followed by Williamson on June 11.[266] Despite being perceived as a minor candidate, Palmer won the
American Samoa caucuses, making him the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since
Ted Kennedy in
1980.[267] He won no other contests and suspended his candidacy on May 15, 2024.[268] On March 12, 2024, Biden obtained a majority of delegates, officially becoming the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.[269] Williamson re-entered the presidential race on July 2 and called for an open convention, before finally ending her campaign on July 29.[270][271]
Due to
concerns regarding ballot deadlines in Ohio, the party held a virtual vote by delegates to select the party's nominee prior to their in-person convention, in which Harris secured a majority of delegates' votes on August 2. The party's nominee will be officially chosen by August 7, the original deadline imposed for ballot access in Ohio.[6]
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after
Grover Cleveland in
1892.[277] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the
Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced
his candidacy in a speech at
Mar-a-Lago the same day.[278][279] Trump was considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his
2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[280] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president
Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[281]
In March 2023, Trump was
indicted over his
hush money payments to adult film actress
Stormy Daniels.[282] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[283][284]
Florida Governor
Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[285][286][287]
On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO
Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[288] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[289] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[290]
Following the
Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman
Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in
Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[291][292] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[293] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on
Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.[294]
On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[295]
On July 18, 2024, Trump accepted the nomination from the Republican National Convention to become the Republican presidential nominee. This was the third consecutive election in which he was the Republican nominee.[297]
Jill Stein announced on May 26, 2024, that her
campaign had accrued enough delegates to secure the
Green Party nomination and thus became the presumptive nominee.[301][302][303] Stein was also the party's candidate in
2012 and
2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the
LexingtonTown Meeting. No running mate has yet been announced, with the
2024 Green National Convention to take place from August 15 to 18, 2024.[304] As of June 2024[update], Stein has ballot access both on Green Party and Independent ballot lines in at least 22 states with a total of 273 electoral votes.[305][better source needed]
Cornel West is a socialist activist and intellectual who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a
People's Party and later a
Green Party candidate.[240] His running mate is
Melina Abdullah, an academic and civic leader from California.
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean" or "leans": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
Note that all of these forecasts were made before Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, 2024. FiveThirtyEight and The Economist suspended their forecasts after President Biden dropped out of the race. Their ratings in the table show hypothetical forecasts for if Biden was still in the race.
In April 2022, the
Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the
Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[353] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed hosting two debates outside of the CPD timetable and refusing to participate in CPD-hosted debates. Biden and Trump agreed to debates on
CNN on June 27 and
ABC News on September 10.[354]
June 27
CNN hosted the first major debate of the election on June 27, with 51 million viewers watching.[355] Media outlets characterized Biden's debate performance as a "disaster". Some pundits noted that he frequently lost his train of thought and gave meandering, confused answers.[356][357][358]
G. Elliott Morris and Kaleigh Rogers of
ABC News' 538 argued that Biden had failed to reassure voters that he was capable of serving as president for another four years.[359] After the debate, elected officials, party strategists, and fundraisers conversed about
replacing Biden as the party's candidate, including whether prominent Democrats should make a public statement asking him to step aside.[360] Biden stated that he would not be dropping out.[361]Barack Obama and
Hillary Clinton reiterated their support for Biden following the debate.[362][363] The debate performance ultimately led to Biden
withdrawing his bid for re-election on July 21.
September 10
The second presidential debate is scheduled to be held on September 10 and will be hosted by
ABC News.[364]
^
abcCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^The FiveThirtyEight forecast[343] and Economist[344] each rate only a handful of states as "safe." States rated safe by all other forecasts but FiveThirtyEight and Economist are omitted
^
abcUnlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
^The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed due to redistricting.
^
abcdefYourish, Karen; Smart, Charlie (May 24, 2024). "Trump's Pattern of Sowing Election Doubt Intensifies in 2024". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on May 25, 2024. Retrieved May 25, 2024. Former President Donald J. Trump has baselessly and publicly cast doubt about the fairness of the 2024 election about once a day, on average, since he announced his candidacy for president, according to an analysis by The New York Times ... This rhetorical strategy — heads, I win; tails, you cheated — is a beloved one for Mr. Trump that predates even his time as a presidential candidate ... Long before announcing his candidacy, Mr. Trump and his supporters had been falsely claiming that President Biden was "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him.
^Nuzzi, Olivia (November 22, 2023).
"The Mind-Bending Politics of RFK Jr". Intelligencer.
Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024. The general election is now projected to be a three-way race between Biden, Trump, and their mutual, Kennedy, with a cluster of less popular third-party candidates filling out the constellation.
^
abBenson, Samuel (November 2, 2023).
"RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News.
Archived from the original on November 21, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023. Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s
Edsall, Thomas B. (April 12, 2023).
"How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
^Broadwater, Luke (May 21, 2024). "House G.O.P. Moves to Crack Down on Noncitizen Voting, Sowing False Narrative". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024. Republicans are pushing legislation to crack down on voting by noncitizens, which happens rarely and is already illegal in federal elections, in a move that reinforces former President Donald J. Trump's efforts to delegitimize the 2024 results if he loses.
^Basu, Zachary (May 22, 2024).
"Trump spreads false "assassination" claims as voters fear violence". Axios.
Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024. Former President Trump and his allies have already signaled they will not accept the results of the election if they believe it's "unfair," reviving the type of rhetoric that helped incite the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
^Ibrahim, Nur (December 5, 2022).
"Did Trump Say Election Fraud Allows for 'Termination' of US Constitution?". Snopes.
Archived from the original on May 31, 2023. Retrieved December 9, 2023. In sum, Trump posted on Truth Social that, what he believed to be, election fraud in the 2020 presidential election allows "for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution." For that reason, we rated this claim "Correct Attribution."
^Feuer, Alan; Haberman, Maggie (April 13, 2024).
"Inside Donald Trump's Embrace of the Jan. 6 Rioters". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331. Archived from
the original on April 13, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024. Recently, however, his celebrations of the Capitol riot and those who took part in it have become more public as he has promoted a revisionist history of the attack and placed it at the heart of his 2024 presidential campaign ... Mr. Trump hasn't always embraced Jan. 6 — at least not openly ... Mr. Trump's embrace of Jan. 6 not only has meant describing the attack in which more than 100 police officers were injured as a "love fest." It also has led him to tell a journalist that he wanted to march to the Capitol that day but that his team had prevented him from doing so.
^Gamio, Lazaro; Yourish, Karen; Haag, Matthew; Bromwich, Jonah E.; Haberman, Maggie; Lai, K.K. Rebecca (May 30, 2024).
"The Trump Manhattan Criminal Verdict, Count By Count". The New York Times.
Archived from the original on May 30, 2024. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
^Baker, Peter (December 1, 2022). "Trump Embraces Extremism as He Seeks to Reclaim Office". The New York Times.
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Archived from the original on April 16, 2024. Retrieved July 13, 2024. Analysts and strategists see Mr. Trump's pivot toward the far right as a tactic to re-create political momentum ... Mr. Trump has long flirted with the fringes of American society as no other modern president has, openly appealing to prejudice based on race, religion, national origin and sexual orientation, among others ... Mr. Trump's expanding embrace of extremism has left Republicans once again struggling to figure out how to distance themselves from him.
^Swenson, Ali; Kunzelman, Michael (November 18, 2023). "Fears of political violence are growing as the 2024 campaign heats up and conspiracy theories evolve". The Associated Press.
Archived from the original on May 11, 2024. Retrieved July 13, 2024. Trump has amplified social media accounts that promote QAnon, which grew from the far-right fringes of the internet to become a fixture of mainstream Republican politics ... In his 2024 campaign, Trump has ramped up his combative rhetoric with talk of retribution against his enemies. He recently joked about the hammer attack on Paul Pelosi and suggested that retired Gen. Mark Milley, a former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, should be executed for treason.
^Layne, Nathan; Slattery, Gram; Reid, Tim (April 3, 2024).
"Trump calls migrants 'animals,' intensifying focus on illegal immigration". Reuters.
Archived from the original on June 17, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024. While speaking of Laken Riley – a 22-year-old nursing student from Georgia allegedly murdered by a Venezuelan immigrant in the country illegally – Trump said some immigrants were sub-human. "The Democrats say, 'Please don't call them animals. They're humans.' I said, 'No, they're not humans, they're not humans, they're animals,'" said Trump, president from 2017 to 2021.
^Cheatle, Kimberly (July 15, 2024).
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Archived from the original on July 15, 2024. Retrieved July 15, 2024. Secret Service personnel on the ground moved quickly during the incident, with our counter sniper team neutralizing the shooter and our agents implementing protective measures to ensure the safety of former president Donald Trump.
^Levitz, Eric (October 19, 2022).
"How the Diploma Divide Is Remaking American Politics". New York.
Archived from the original on October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022. Blue America is an increasingly wealthy and well-educated place. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Americans without college degrees were more likely than university graduates to vote Democratic. But that gap began narrowing in the late 1960s before finally flipping in 2004... A more educated Democratic coalition is, naturally, a more affluent one... In every presidential election from 1948 to 2012, white voters in the top 5 percent of America's income distribution were more Republican than those in the bottom 95 percent. Now, the opposite is true: Among America's white majority, the rich voted to the left of the middle class and the poor in 2016 and 2020, while the poor voted to the right of the middle class and the rich.
^Munis, Kal; Jacobs, Nicholas (October 20, 2022). "Why Resentful Rural Americans Vote Republican". The Washington Post.
Archived from the original on October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022. ...that the disproportionately White, older, more religious, less affluent and less highly educated voters who live in rural areas are more likely to hold socially conservative views generally championed by Republicans. Meanwhile, urban areas are filled with younger, more racially diverse, more highly educated and more affluent people who hold the more socially liberal views generally championed by Democrats.
^Charen, Mona (November 9, 2018).
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^Cost, Jay.
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"How The Right Came To Embrace Intrusive Government". The New York Times.
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Archived from the original on April 12, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023. Republicans in states across the country are defiantly pushing for the criminalization of abortion — of the procedure, of abortifacient drugs and of those who travel out of state to terminate pregnancy... According to research provided to The Times by the Kaiser Family Foundation, states that have abortion bans at various early stages of pregnancy with no exception for rape or incest include Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
^Leonhardt, David (January 17, 2024).
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Archived from the original on January 26, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
^
abcLayne, Nathan; Slattery, Gram; Reid, Tim (April 3, 2024).
"Trump calls migrants 'animals,' intensifying focus on illegal immigration". Reuters.
Archived from the original on June 17, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024. While speaking of Laken Riley – a 22-year-old nursing student from Georgia allegedly murdered by a Venezuelan immigrant in the country illegally – Trump said some immigrants were sub-human. "The Democrats say, 'Please don't call them animals. They're humans.' I said, 'No, they're not humans, they're not humans, they're animals,'" said Trump, president from 2017 to 2021.
^Lindsay, James M. (December 1, 2023).
"Campaign Roundup: The Republican Presidential Candidates on Climate Change". Council on Foreign Relations.
Archived from the original on December 12, 2023. Retrieved December 11, 2023. Donald Trump hasn't said how he would approach climate change if he returns to the White House. But during his first term in office, he withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and regularly ridiculed the idea of man-made climate change.
^Bordoff, Jason (December 2022).
"America's Landmark Climate Law". International Monetary Fund.
Archived from the original on January 18, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024. The Inflation Reduction Act is the most significant piece of climate legislation in the history of the United States.
^Burns, Tobias (July 10, 2024).
"Experts see potential for higher inflation under Trump". The Hill. A growing number of investors and economists see inflation rising if former President Trump and Republicans sweep the upcoming elections. As Trump opens a wider lead in polling over President Biden, economic experts say his proposed tax and tariff policies could lead to higher prices, after more than two years of the incumbent fighting inflation.
^Wiseman, Paul (May 21, 2024).
"Trump or Biden? Either way, US seems poised to preserve heavy tariffs on imports". AP News.
Archived from the original on May 21, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024. Trump has vowed more of the same in a second term. He's threatening to impose a 10% tariff on all imports — and a 60% tax on Chinese goods...Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, warns that the consequences would be damaging. Trump's tariff plans, Zandi said, 'would spark higher inflation, reduce GDP and jobs and increase unemployment, all else equal.'
^Picchi, Aimee (June 25, 2024).
"16 Nobel Prize-winning economists warn that Trump's economic plans could reignite inflation". www.cbsnews.com.
Archived from the original on July 9, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024. Trump's policies could prove to be inflationary, other economists also warned, such as his proposal to create a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports to deporting immigrants. The tariff plan would add $1,700 in annual costs for the typical U.S. household, essentially acting as an inflationary tax, according to experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
^Kiernan, Paul; DeBarros, Anthony (July 11, 2024).
"Economists Say Inflation Would Be Worse Under Trump Than Biden". The Wall Street Journal. Conducted July 5–9...of the 50 who answered questions about Trump and Biden 56% said inflation would be higher under another Trump term than a Biden term, versus 16% who said the opposite...Fifty-one percent of economists anticipate larger federal budget deficits under a Trump presidency, compared to 22% under Biden.
^Benson, Samuel (November 2, 2023).
"RFK Jr.'s big gamble". Deseret News.
Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 3, 2023. He's shared a number of controversial theories relating to school shootings and COVID-19 vaccines. In more recent interviews, however, he's taken a more measured approach... Early polls show Kennedy polling in the teens or low 20s — a major underdog, but enough to put both major party nominees on edge...
^Silver, Nate (January 28, 2021).
"How Popular Is Joe Biden?". FiveThirtyEight.
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Oshin, Olafimihan (January 23, 2022).
"Auschwitz Memorial says RFK Jr. speech at anti-vaccine rally exploits Holocaust tragedy". The Hill. Archived from
the original on January 24, 2022. Retrieved January 27, 2022. During a speech at the rally, Kennedy, a conspiracy theorist and prominent anti-vaxxer, warned of a massive surveillance network being created with satellites in space and 5G mobile networks collecting data.
"Cheryl Hines Blasts Husband RFK Jr. for Holocaust Remark". The Wrap. January 25, 2022. Archived from
the original on January 25, 2022. Retrieved January 27, 2022. Cheryl Hines has publicly condemned a statement made by her husband Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a rally on Sunday, in which the environmental lawyer and conspiracy theorist likened COVID regulations to the Holocaust.
"Guests urged to be vaccinated at anti-vaxxer Robert F Kennedy Jr's party". The Guardian. December 18, 2021. Archived from
the original on December 18, 2021. Retrieved January 27, 2022. The younger Kennedy has campaigned on environmental issues but is also a leading vaccines conspiracy theorist and activist against shots including those approved to combat Covid-19, which has killed more than 805,000 in the US and more than 5.3 million worldwide.
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Conspiracy Theories Go Beyond Vaccines". The New York Times. July 6, 2023.
Archived from the original on October 11, 2023. Retrieved October 12, 2023. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer, is a leading vaccine skeptic and purveyor of conspiracy theories who has leaned heavily on misinformation as he mounts his long-shot 2024 campaign for the Democratic nomination.