The Afghan economy continues to improve due to the influx of
expats, establishment of more
trade routes with neighboring and regional countries,[19][20] and expansion of the nation's agriculture,
energy and
mining sectors.[21][22][23] The billions of dollars in assistance that came from expats and the international community saw this increase when there was more political reliability after
NATO became involved in Afghanistan.[24][25]
Despite holding over one trillion dollars in proven untapped mineral deposits, Afghanistan remains one of the
least developed countries in the world. Its unemployment rate is over 23%[5] and about half of its population lives below the
poverty line.[5][26] The main factor behind this has been the continuous war in the country, which deterred business investors and left much of the population fighting among each other instead of catching up with the rest of the world.[27] Afghanistan has long sought foreign investment in order to improve its economy.[28] The population of Afghanistan increased by more than 50% between 2001 and 2014, while its GDP grew eightfold.[29] After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power in 2021, the
Biden administration decided to confiscate or withhold $9.5 billion worth of assets from the Afghanistan Central Bank to stop the Taliban from accessing it.[30][31][32]
When Afghanistan was ruled by
EmirAbdur Rahman Khan (1880–1901) and his son
Habibullah Khan (1901–1919), a great deal of commerce was controlled by the government. These monarchs were eager to develop the stature of government and the country's military capability, and so attempted to raise money by the imposition of state monopolies on the sale of commodities and high taxes. This slowed the long-term development of Afghanistan during that period. Western technologies and manufacturing methods were introduced at the command of the Afghan ruler, but in general only according to the logistical requirements of the growing army. An emphasis was placed on the manufacture of weapons and other military material. This process was in the hands of a small number of foreign experts invited to Kabul by the Afghan kings.[36] Otherwise, it was not possible for non-Afghans, particularly westerners, to set up large-scale enterprises in Afghanistan during that period.[37]
In the post-independence period, DAB strongly financed the cultivation of
cotton; at one point, the Spinzar Cotton Company in
Kunduz Province was one of the largest providers of cotton in the world, most of which were exported to the
Soviet Union. Fruits were mainly exported to British-controlled India.[38]
The first prominent plan to develop Afghanistan's economy in modern times was the
Helmand Valley Authority project of 1952, modeled on the
Tennessee Valley Authority in the
United States, which was expected to be of primary economic importance.[39] Glenn Foster, an American contractor working in Afghanistan in the 1950s, stated this about the Afghan people:
Even though there are masses of people, the country seems able to feed them all. Although their diet may not be abundant, you don't see the hunger that you do in some countries....[40][36]
Afghanistan began facing severe economic hardships during the 1979
Soviet invasion and ensuing
civil war destroyed much of the country's limited infrastructure, and disrupted normal patterns of economic activity. Eventually, Afghanistan went from a
traditional economy to a
centrally planned economy up until 2002 when it was replaced by a
free market economy.[41] Gross domestic product has fallen substantially since the 1980s due to disruption of trade and transport as well as loss of labor and capital. Continuing internal strife severely hampered domestic efforts to rebuild the nation or provide ways for the international community to help.
According to the
International Monetary Fund, the Afghan economy grew 20% in the
fiscal year ending in March 2004, after expanding 30% in the previous 12 months. The growth was mainly attributed to United Nations assistance. Billions of dollars in international aid had entered Afghanistan from 2002 to 2021. A GDP of $4 billion in fiscal year 2003 was recalculated by the IMF to $6.1 billion, after adding proceeds from
opium production. Mean graduate pay was $0.56 per
man-hour in 2010. The country expects to be self sufficient in
wheat,
rice,
poultry and
dairy production by 2026.[42][22]
The recent reestablishment of the Taliban government led to temporary suspension of international development aid to Afghanistan.[43] The
World Bank and
International Monetary Fund also halted payments during that period.[44][45] In this regard, Taliban's spiritual leader
Hibatullah Akhundzada stated, "The economy of a country is built when its people work together and do not rely on foreign aid[.]"[46] The Biden administration froze about $9 billion in assets belonging to the DAB, which was intended to block the Taliban from accessing the money.[47][48] The recent
droughts,
earthquakes and
floods in the country have created further adverse economic situation for many residents.[49] The
Ministry of Finance has collected over $2 billion in 2022.[19]
The GDP of Afghanistan is estimated to have dropped by 20% following the Taliban return to power. Following this, after months of free-fall, the Afghan economy began stabilizing, as a result of the Taliban's restrictions on smuggled imports, limits on banking transactions, and UN aid. In 2023, the Afghan economy began seeing signs of revival. This has also been followed by stable exchange rates, low inflation, stable revenue collection, and the rise of trade in exports.[50] In the third quarter of 2023, the
Afghani rose to be the best performing currency in the world, climbing over 9% against the
US dollar.[51]
Agriculture remains Afghanistan’s most important source of employment: 60-80 percent of Afghanistan’s population works in this sector, although it accounts for less than a third of GDP due to insufficient irrigation, drought, lack of market access, and other structural impediments. Most Afghan farmers are primarily subsistence farmers.[52]
The northern and western Afghan provinces are long known for
pistachio cultivation.[70][71][72] In recent years, farmers in the southern provinces began growing
American pistachio trees.[73] Provinces in the east of the country, particularly
Khost and
Paktia, are famous for
pine nuts.[74][75][76] The northern and central provinces are also famous for
almonds and
walnuts, as well as for kangina, a method of storing grapes in mud.[77][78] The
Bamyan Province in central Afghanistan is known for growing superior quality potatoes, which produced 370,000 tons in 2020.
Nangarhar,
Kunar and
Laghman are the only provinces in the country where large farms of grapefruits, lemons, limes, and oranges can be found.[79][80][81][82] Nangarhar also has farms of
dates,
peanuts,
olives, and
sugarcane.[83][84][85][86] Cultivation of these products have spread to other provinces of the country.[87][88] Other agricultural products such as
avocados,
bananas and
pineapples have recently been planted in the provinces of
Balkh,
Helmand, Nangarhar, and Paktia.[89][90][91]
Afghanistan is listed as the
54th largest vegetables producing country. Most of its vegetables are for domestic consumption and include beans, broccoli, cabbages, carrots, cauliflowers, chickpeas, coriander, corns, cucumbers, eggplants, leeks, lettuces, okras, onions, peppers, potatoes, pumpkins, radishes, rhubarb, spinach, tomatoes, turnips, and zucchinis.
Wheat and
cereal production is Afghanistan's traditional agricultural mainstay.[92] The nation is nearing self-sufficiency in grain production. It requires an additional 1 to 3 million tons of wheat to become self-sufficient, which is predicted to be accomplished in the near future.[93][94]
Arable land in Afghanistan was reported to be over 7.5 million hectares.[100][101] Wheat production had stood at about 5 million tonnes in 2015,[102] nurseries held 119,000 hectares of land, and grape production is at 615,000 tonnes. It was reported that cotton production has jumped to 500,000 tons.[103] Around 3,200 ha (7,900 acres) of farm land in Afghanistan is used to cultivate
saffron,[104] mostly in the west, north and south of the country.[105][106][107] Sugarcane is currently grown on 1,750 ha (4,300 acres) of land,[86] and
asafoetida on nearly 980 ha (2,400 acres) of land.[108]
According to a 2010 report, only about 2.1% (or 1,350,000 ha (3,300,000 acres)) of Afghanistan is forested.[109] This can be significantly increased by planting trees, including in the non-rocky hills and mountains which trap underground water.[110] Some steps have been taken in recent years in planting trees in the urban areas all across Afghanistan.[111][112][113] Even the Taliban spiritual leader has recently called for planting more trees.[114][115]Felling has been made illegal nationally.[116][117]
Afghanistan is landlocked with its citizens having no direct access to an ocean. The country has many
lakes,
ponds,
reservoirs,
rivers,
springs,
streams, etc.,[118] which make it a suitable climate for
fish farming.[119] Historically,
fish constituted a smaller part of the
Afghan diet because of the unavailability of modern fish farms. Fishing only took place in the lakes and rivers, particularly in the
Amu,
Helmand and
Kabul rivers.[120] Consumption of fish has increased sharply due to the establishment of many fish farms.[121] There are over 2,600 of them in the country.[122] The largest ones are at the
national reservoirs, which supply fish eggs to smaller fish farms.[123]
It is claimed that Afghanistan has at least $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.[155] A memo from the Pentagon stated that Afghanistan could become the "Saudi Arabia of
lithium".[156] Some believe that the untapped minerals are worth up to $3 trillion.[157][158][159] The
Khanashincarbonatites in the
Helmand Province of the country have an estimated 1 million metric tonnes of
rare earth elements.[160]
Afghanistan currently has a copper mining deal with
China Metallurgical Group Corporation,[161] which involves the investment of $2.8 billion by China and an annual income of about $400 million to the Afghan government. The country's Ainak copper mine, located in
Logar Province, is one of the biggest in the world. It is estimated to hold at least 11 million tonnes or US$33 billion worth of copper.[162]
The previous government has signed a 30-year contract with investment group Centar and its operating company, Afghan Gold and Minerals Co., to explore and develop a copper mining operation in
Balkhab District in
Sar-e Pol Province, including a gold mining operation in
Badakhshan Province. The copper contract involved a $56 million investment and the gold contract a $22 million investment.[163]
The country's other recently announced treasure is the Hajigak iron mine, located 210 km (130 mi) west of Kabul and is believed to hold an estimated 1.8 billion to 2 billion metric tons of the mineral used to make steel.[164] The country also has a number of
coal mines.[165][166][167]
Afghanistan's important resource in the past has been natural gas, which was first tapped in 1967. During the 1980s, gas sales accounted for $300 million a year in export revenues (56% of the total). About 90% of these exports went to the
Soviet Union to pay for imports and debts. However, during the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, the natural gas fields were capped to prevent sabotage by criminals. Gas production has dropped from a high of 8.2×10^6 m3 (290×10^6 cu ft) per day in the 1980s to a low of about 600,000 m3 (21×10^6 cu ft) in 2001. Production of natural gas was restored during the
Karzai administration in 2010.[168]
It is predicted that by pumping-out its own oil reserves,[169][170][171] Afghanistan will no longer be importing oil products after 2026.[172] Originally, the Karzai administration and
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed a contract for the development of three oil fields in the northern provinces of
Sar-e Pol,
Jowzjan and
Faryab.[173][174] It was later reported that CNPC began extracting 240,000 m3 (1.5×10^6 bbl) of oil annually.[175] In early 2023, the
Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company signed a similar contract with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.[176] Russia had also found interest in oil and gas supply to Afghanistan.[177][178]
Afghanistan embarked on a modest economic development program in the 1930s. The government founded banks; introduced paper money; established a university; expanded primary, secondary, and technical schools; and sent students abroad for education. In 1952 it created the
Helmand Valley Authority to manage the economic development of the Helmand and Arghandab valleys through irrigation and land development,[39] a scheme which remains one of the country's most important capital resources.[179]
In 1956, the government promulgated the first in a long series of ambitious development plans.[36] By the late 1970s, these had achieved only mixed results due to flaws in the planning process as well as inadequate funding and a shortage of the skilled managers and technicians needed for implementation.[180]
Afghanistan is a member of
ECO,
OIC,
SAARC, and
WTO. It has an observer status in the
SCO. It seeks to complete the so-called New Silk Road trade project, which is aimed to connecting South Asia with Central Asia and the Middle East. This way Afghanistan will be able to collect large fees from trade passing through the country, including from the
Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline.
Some of the ongoing national mega projects include the
Qosh Tepa Canal project in the north of the country and the New Kabul City.[182] Other smaller development projects include the Qatar Township in Kabul,[183] Aino Mena in Kandahar and the
Ghazi Amanullah Khan Town east of
Jalalabad. Similar projects are also found in
Herat in the west,
Mazar-e-Sharif in the north,
Khost in the east, and in other cities.
There are as much as 5,000 factories in Afghanistan.[184] Most are locally owned,[185][186][187][188][189] while others involve foreign investors.[190][191][192] They produce construction materials, furniture, household items, apparel, food, beverages, pharmaceutical products, etc.[193][194][195][196] The country imports roughly $500 million of textile goods from other countries.[197] It exported about $168 million worth of
cotton in 2022.[198]Afghan handwoven rugs are one of the most popular products for exportation. Other products include hand crafted antique replicas as well as leather and furs. Afghanistan is the third largest exporter of
cashmere.[199]
After the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan returned to power, the country suffered from a major liquidity crisis and lack of banknotes.[200] Because outside donors have severely cut funding to support Afghanistan's health, education, and other essential sectors, many Afghans lost their incomes. Under the assessment system of the
World Food Programme (WFP), almost 20 million people suffered either level-3 “crisis” or level-4 “emergency” levels of food insecurity. The crisis’ impact on women and girls was especially severe.[201] Officials under the new Islamic Emirate continue to provide
communication services to areas that lacked them.[202] The government collected 61 billion afghanis in
tariffs in 2022,[203] which increased to 76 billion in 2023.[204] It continues to attract foreign investors.[205][206][207][208][209]
Tourism in Afghanistan was at its peak in 1977. Many tourists from around the world visited Afghanistan, including from as far away as
Europe and
North America. All of that ended with the start of the April 1978
Saur Revolution. However, it is again gradually increasing despite having reputation as one of the most dangerous countries in the world.[210] Between 4,000 and 20,000 foreign tourists visit Afghanistan every year.[211][212][213] As many as 371,000 Afghans have visited different parts of the country in 2022.[214] Tourists are advised to avoid areas where armed criminals may operate.[215]
The following table shows the main economic indicators in 2002–2020 (with IMF staff estimates in 2021–2026).[226] Inflation below 5% is in green. The annual unemployment rate is extracted from the
World Bank, although the
International Monetary Fund find them unreliable.[227]
Energy in Afghanistan is provided by
hydropower followed by
fossil fuel and
solar power.[5] The nation currently generates over 600 megawatts (
MW) of electricity from its several
hydroelectric plants as well as using fossil fuel and
solar panels.[5][231] Over 670 MW more is imported from neighboring Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.[232][233] Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) is the national electricity provider.[234]
Price of electricity is 2.5 afghanis per kw in Kabul Province, 4 afghanis in Herat Province, and around 6 afghanis in Balkh Province.[235] The government wants to use the nation's
coal reserves to produce extra electricity.[236] The
CASA-1000 project will also add 300 MW of electricity to the national grid.[237]
Due to large influx of
expats from neighboring
Pakistan and
Iran, the nation may require as much as 7,000 MW of electricity in the coming years.[238] The Afghan National Development Strategy has identified
renewable energy alternatives, such as
wind and
solar energy, as a high value power source to develop.[239][240] A number of major solar and
wind farms already exist in the country,[241][242][243] with more under development.[244][245]
^Hejazi, Ziaurrahman; Nawakht, Noor Agha; Hedayat, Yar Mohammad; Giordani, Edgardo (2023-03-01). "Styrofoam Packaging as Alternative of the Afghan Traditional "Gangina" Container to Extend Quality of 'Taifi' Grapes in Room Temperature Storage". Journal of Packaging Technology and Research. 7 (1): 35–41. doi:10.1007/s41783-022-00148-1. ISSN 2520-1042. S2CID 255079194.
^Poultry Value Chain in Afghanistan. Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development-Facility (CARD-F). November 11, 2018.
Archived from the original on 2021-12-11. Retrieved 2019-03-30.
^"Afghanistan and Pakistan's Looming Water Conflict". The Diplomat. December 15, 2018. Retrieved 2021-04-23. Afghanistan has abundant water resources. It produces 80 billion cubic meters of water a year, pumping 60 billion cubic meters of it to the neighbors — particularly Pakistan.