An upset occurs in a
competition, frequently in
electoral politics or
sports, when the party popularly expected to win (the "favorite") is defeated by (or, in the case of sports, ties with) an
underdog whom the majority expects to lose, defying the
conventional wisdom. It is often used in reference to beating the betting odds in sports, or beating the
opinion polls in electoral politics.
Origin
The meaning of the word "upset" has long included "an overthrowing or overturn of ideas, plans, etc." (see
OED definition 6b), from which the sports definition almost surely derived. "Upset" also once referred to "a curved part of a bridle-bit, fitting over the tongue of the horse", (now the port of a
curb bit), but even though the modern sports meaning of "upset" was first used far more for horse races than for any other competition, there is no evidence of a connection.
In 2002, George Thompson, a lexicographic researcher, used the full-text online search capabilities of The New York Times databases to trace the usage of the verb to upset and the noun upset. The latter was seen in usage as early as 1877.[1]
Thompson's research debunked one popular theory of the term's origin, namely that it was first used after the surprising defeat of the horse
Man o' War by the racehorse
Upset in 1919 (the loss was the only one in Man o' War's career).
The term pre-dates that 1919 Thoroughbred race by at least several decades. In its sports coverage immediately following Upset's victory, the Washington Post wrote, "One might make all sorts of puns about it being an upset."
The name of the horse "Upset" came from the "trouble" or "distress" meaning of the word (as shown by the parallelism of the name of Upset's stablemate,
Regret).
Sports
Below is a selection of major upsets from a variety of popular sports around the world. It is not meant to be comprehensive, merely representative.
American football
Heading into the
2007 college football season, the
Michigan Wolverines were ranked as the pre-season Number 5 team, and among the favorites for that year's
BCS National Championship. As an early season tune-up game, Michigan had booked the lower division
Appalachian State Mountaineers for their
first game of the season. The Mountaineers surprised the football world by leading 28–17 at the half. Though Michigan clawed their way back to lead 32–31 late into the fourth quarter, the Mountaineers kicked a field goal with 26 seconds left in the game to take the lead 34–32. Michigan managed to use only 20 seconds of game time to drive the ball down to the App State 27-yard line, and as time was expiring the Mountaineers Corey Lynch blocked a Michigan field goal attempt to secure the upset for App State. The game marked only the second time, to that point, that a lower-division school had beaten a top-division AP-ranked team.[2]
In
Super Bowl III, the senior
National Football League was playing their third interleague championship game against the upstart
American Football League. The NFL had won the prior two matchups without much difficulty, and it looked poised to do so again, as the
Baltimore Colts, with a 13–1 record, behind
quarterbackEarl Morrall, who led the league in touchdown passes that season and was named NFL Most Valuable Player. The team also had several future Hall of Fame players on the roster, including quarterback
Johnny Unitas, relegated to a back-up role following an early-season injury,
tight endJohn Mackey, as well as a defense led by perennial all-pro
Bubba Smith. The
New York Jets were led by
Joe Namath at quarterback, who earlier in the week had "guaranteed" victory against the Colts. Namath's top target, future Hall of Fame wide receiver
Don Maynard, was hobbled by an injury, but Namath led the Jets on a run-focused attack that leaned heavily on fullback
Matt Snell, who ran for 121 yards and scored the Jets' only touchdown. The Jets defense confounded Morrall, who had only six completions on 17 attempts, with three interceptions in the first half, including an interception to the Jets'
Jim Hudson while Colts' star receiver
Jimmy Orr, uncovered in the end zone, waved his hands to no avail. Colts' head coach
Don Shula put the hobbled Unitas in the game in the second half, and despite a late game touchdown, lost the game 16–7.[3]
Leicester City F.C., an English football club, crowned champions of the
2015–16 Premier League. The club had narrowly avoided the relegation the previous season by finishing 14th and being in the bottom of the table the most part of the season. At the beginning of the season, bookmakers had given Leicester City odds of 5000/1 against them winning the league. It was the first
English title in their history.
A major upset in Spanish football was the
Alcorconazo, when in the first leg of a
2009–10 Copa del ReyAD Alcorcón won over
Real Madrid 4–0.[7] Real Madrid is one of the largest clubs in Spanish football and the world while Alcorcón team played in the third-tier
Segunda División B. Because Real Madrid won the second leg only 1–0, Alcorcón advanced victorious to the next round. The half-time substitution of
Guti when the score was 3–0 and when he was booked before was another topic in the Spanish press because of words exchanged between the player and his coach,
Manuel Pellegrini.[8]
Baseball
The
1906 World Series looked to be one of the most lopsided matchups in
World Series history, as the
National League powerhouse
Chicago Cubs, with a record of 116–36 represented the best winning percentage in modern
Major League Baseball history. They faced off against their cross-town rivals, the
Chicago White Sox, who finished with the
American League pennant having a record of 93–58. The White Sox were dubbed the "hitless wonders" as their .230 team
batting average was not only the worst batting average by a team to win their league pennant, it was the worst overall batting average in all of Major League Baseball that season. Buoyed by a pitching staff that held the Cubs to a
below .200 batting average for the series, the White Sox showed an uncharacteristic surge of batting prowess in games 5 and 6 with 16 runs on 26 hits over the two games to claim the World Series crown four games to two in what has been called the biggest upset in MLB history.[9]
Basketball
In the
1985 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, the
Georgetown Hoyas had won the
previous national championship, and looked poised to win their second straight, as they entered the
1985 national championship as the defending national champion with the Number 1 overall seed, as well as the Number 1 seed in the East Region, posting a record of 35–2, including a
Big East tournament title. Their opponent and Big East rival, the Number 8 seed
Villanova Wildcats, entered the national championship with a 24–10 record. Villanova defeated Georgetown, 66–64, in what has been considered one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament history. As of
2022, this is the only time an 8th-seeded team has won the NCAA tournament and the 1984–85 Villanova team remains the lowest-seeded team to win the NCAA tournament.
The
Stanford Cardinal entered the
1998 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament with the Number 1 seed in the West Region, posting a record of 21–5, including a Pac-10 regular season title. Their opponent, the Number 16 seed
Harvard Crimson, entered the tournament with a 22–4 record and an
Ivy League regular season title. Before this match, no Number 1 seed had ever fallen to a Number 16 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994.
Harvard defeated Stanford, 71–67, in what has been considered the biggest upset in NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament history. 20 years later, a Number 16 seed had beaten a Number 1 seed in men's tournament (see below).
The
Virginia Cavaliers entered the
2018 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament with the Number 1 overall seed, as well as the Number 1 seed in the South Region, posting a record of 31–2, including both an ACC regular season title and
ACC tournament title. Their opponent, Number 16 seed
UMBC, entered the tournament with a 24–10 record and an
America East tournament title. Before this match, no Number 1 seed had ever fallen to a Number 16 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
UMBC defeated Virginia, 74–54, in what has been considered the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history.[10] This is the only time a Number 16 seed has beaten a Number 1 seed in NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament until 2023 (see below).
Entering the
first round of the 2007 NBA Playoffs, the
Dallas Mavericks had the best record in all of
NBA at 67–15, six games up on second place, while their first round opponent, the
Golden State Warriors, had a 42–40 record and had only qualified for the tournament on the last day of the regular season, having needed to win all of their last five games just to qualify. Dallas was captained by
power forwardDirk Nowitzki, who was in the midst of a Hall-of-Fame career that would feature 14 all star appearances, and supported by other star players such as
Jason Terry,
Jerry Stackhouse,
Devin Harris, and
Josh Howard. Golden State had completely revamped their team mid-season, including two starters (
Stephen Jackson and
Al Harrington), who arrived in January in a blockbuster 8-player deal with the
Indiana Pacers.
Baron Davis was the unquestioned star of the playoff run, as he dominated the Mavericks, averaging 25.3 points, 6.5 assists, and 2.9 steals per game, as the Warriors would knock off the Mavericks four games to two.[11]
Entering the
second round of the 2020 NBA Playoffs, The
Los Angeles Clippers, under the guidance by championship head coach
Doc Rivers, were widely regarded as frontrunners for the championship. Armed with star talents like
Kawhi Leonard, who came off a championship win with the
Toronto Raptors, and
Paul George, a previous MVP candidate and first-team All-Defensive player, and defensive guard
Patrick Beverley, the Clippers had high expectations. Their deep bench, featuring
Montrezl Harrell and
Lou Williams, added to their championship aspirations, while their strong defensive prowess further solidified their position. However, the
Denver Nuggets, guided by the dynamic duo of
Jamal Murray and
Nikola Jokic, emerged as formidable challengers. Murray's explosive scoring prowess, highlighted by a remarkable 40-point performance in Game 7, combined with Jokic's extraordinary playmaking and versatility as a center, were instrumental in fueling the Nuggets' remarkable comeback. This unforeseen development showcased the Nuggets' remarkable resilience and their strategic acumen in exploiting the Clippers' defensive weaknesses. In contrast, the Clippers' star players faltered significantly in the crucial Game 7, with Leonard managing only 14 points and a 6-of-22 shooting performance, and George contributing a mere 10 points at a shooting efficiency of 25%, including a notable miss that hit the side of the backboard during a 3-point attempt. Notably, both stars were unable to score in the 4th quarter. This series of events culminated in a stunning reversal, as the Clippers lost their dominant 3–1 series lead, becoming the 12th team in NBA history to do so. The Nuggets, driven by the exceptional performances of Murray and Jokic, clinched a victory in what became one of the most unexpected and memorable upsets in recent NBA playoff history.[12]
Entering the
first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, the
Milwaukee Bucks earned the inaugural
Maurice Podoloff Trophy as the NBA's best regular season team with a 58–24 record, while their first round opponent, the
Miami Heat, had a 44–38 record, had won their second straight
Southeast Division, had qualified for the playoffs for the fourth straight year, and earned the eighth spot in the
Eastern Conference. Despite losing to the
Atlanta Hawks 116–105 in the first
play-in tournament game, Miami bounced back and defeated the
Chicago Bulls 102–91 in the final play-in tournament game. Miwaukee was coached by
Mike Budenholzer, who is a two-time NBA Coach of the Year and won the NBA championship in 2021. The Miami Heat knocked off the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, in what has been considered one of the biggest upsets in NBA playoffs history. This made the Heat the first number 8 seed to win a playoff series after qualifying for the play-in tournament. This also made the Bucks the sixth number 1 seed to lose a playoff series in the opening round (the others being the
1994 SuperSonics,
1999 Heat,
2007 Mavericks,
2011 Spurs, and
2012 Bulls).
Cricket
In the
1983 Cricket World Cup, the third edition of the tournament, the
West Indies cricket team had won both of the previous two World Cups and looked poised to win their third. Their opponent in the finals,
India, had never made it out of the group stage before 1983. India went to bat first, and managed 183 before being dismissed with five overs left. West Indies star batsman,
Viv Richards, hit a hook towards the leg-side boundary, where Indian captain
Kapil Dev made a running catch to get out the West Indies best batsman. Among the remaining batsman, only
Jeff Dujon managed more than 20 runs, and West Indies were bowled out at 140, giving India their first World Cup.[13]
Ice hockey
Entering the
first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs, the
Tampa Bay Lightning earned the
Presidents' Trophy as the
NHL's best regular season team with a 62–16–4 record (128 points), while their first round opponent, the
Columbus Blue Jackets, had a 47–31–4 record (98 points), had qualified for the playoffs for the third straight year and earned the second wild card spot in the
Eastern Conference. The
Blue Jackets swept the Lightning in four games and won the playoff series for the first time in franchise history, in what has been considered the biggest upset in Stanley Cup playoffs history. This marks the first time in Stanley Cup playoffs history that the Presidents' Trophy winners were swept in the opening round.
Entering the
2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, the
Boston Bruins had set new NHL records for single-season wins and points, finishing with a 65–12–5 record (135 points), and earning the President's Trophy. By contrast, their first round opponent, the
Florida Panthers, had narrowly qualified for the playoffs, finishing with a 42–32–8 record (92 points), and clinching an Eastern Conference wild card berth one day after their penultimate regular-season game. The Panthers defeated the Bruins in seven games, rallying from a 3–1 series deficit and winning three straight games to eliminate Boston; additionally, the team advanced to the second round of the playoffs for just the third time in franchise history. The 43-point difference between the two teams represented the largest upset by standings position of any best-of-seven playoff series in NHL history.[14]
Skiing
Ester Ledecká won the gold medal in
super-G alpine skiing at the
2018 Winter Olympics, after finishing 0.01 seconds ahead of the 2014 Olympics defending gold medalist
Anna Veith, who had already been proclaimed the winner by many media outlets.[15][16] Ledecká was ranked 49th in the event before the Olympics and had never medalled in any World Cup level international skiing event.[17]
Politics
Below is a list of elections which have extensively been described as upsets by a number of major media sources. It is not meant to be comprehensive, merely representative.
2015 Queensland state election: Three years after the
Queensland Labor Party was turfed out of state government by the
Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP) in a massive landslide and reduced to 7 seats in the 89 seat state parliament, Labor overturned the LNP's massive majority and returned to power on a massive swing, forming a minority government. The LNP lead in the opinion polls and the scale of the LNP victory in the previous election made it appear that its defeat was unlikely.[22]
2021 parliamentary election: Opinion polls had shown
ANO 2011 as the clear front-runner[28] while
Spolu was polling second. No opinion poll placed SPOLU in the first place and it was widely believed that ANO 2011 would win the election.[29][30] Eventually Spolu received the higher number of votes and its leader
Petr Fiala became the new Prime Minister.[31]
2024 Indian general election: The governing
Bharatiya Janata Party led by Prime Minister
Narendra Modi (in power since
2014) unexpectedly lost its majority in the Lok Sabha, despite opinion polls predicting them expanding their majority. Its alliance, the
NDA, did win a majority of seats, requiring a coalition government.[43][44][45]
2023 general election:The results of the election were described as "one of the biggest political
upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[50] with the right-wing populist
Party for Freedom (PVV), led by
Geert Wilders, becoming the largest party in the House of Representatives.
Poland
2015 presidential election: The incumbent
Bronisław Komorowski was leading nearly all opinion polls taken before the first round of the election, with some polls taken in late 2014 and early 2015 suggesting he was on track for an outright win that would avoid a runoff election.[51][52]Andrzej Duda eventually took a narrow first-place finish over Komorowski and went on to win the election in runoff.[51][53][54][55]
1970 general election: Most opinion polls prior to the election indicated a comfortable victory for the incumbent Labour government. On election day, however, a late swing gave the Conservatives a 3.4% lead and ended almost six years of Labour government.[73][74]
1992 general election: the ruling
Conservative Party won a fourth consecutive absolute majority in the House of Commons, despite opinion polls having predicted a hung parliament or a narrow absolute majority for the opposition
Labour Party.[75][76][77]
2017 general election: the ruling
Conservative Party lost its absolute majority in the House of Commons, despite opinion polls predicting that they would keep it or even increase it.[79][80]
2016 presidential election: Republican businessman
Donald Trump was elected president over Democratic nominee
Hillary Clinton, despite many media outlets showing her leading in both national and statewide opinion polls, and Trump ultimately losing the popular vote to her.[91][92][93][94][95]