Early general elections were held in the
Netherlands on 22 November 2023 to elect the members of the
House of Representatives.[1][2] The elections had been expected to be held in 2025 but a
snap election was called after the
fourth Rutte cabinet collapsed on 7 July 2023 due to immigration policy disagreements between the coalition parties.[3] The incumbent
Prime MinisterMark Rutte announced that he would not lead his party into the election and that he would retire from politics.[4]
In what was described as "one of the biggest political
upsets in Dutch politics since
World War II",[5] the right-wing populist
Party for Freedom (PVV), led by
Geert Wilders, won 37 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, becoming the largest party for the first time.[5][6][7] All four parties of the incumbent coalition government suffered losses.[8]
After the election,
a cabinet formation began to determine which parties would form the next government. Subsequently on 16 May 2024, a coalition agreement was settled upon by PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB.[9] Furthermore, immigration policy has been heavily prioritised on the incoming government's agenda,[10] as coalition representatives stated they would embrace the "strictest" asylum policy.[11] Numerous reforms are also expected across areas such as welfare and health, as emphasised upon by NSC leader
Pieter Omtzigt during the election campaign, similar to addressing issues having surfaced in the aftermath of the
Dutch childcare benefits scandal.[12] Several observers have described the new government as the most right-wing in recent history.[13]
Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the
human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the
Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the
House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. The
2023 Dutch provincial elections, which were won by the BBB, led to heavy losses for the ruling coalition. Since the provincial councils indirectly elect the
Dutch Senate,[15] it meant that the ruling coalition had to face more difficulty passing legislation.[16]
The government resigned on 7 July 2023 after the four parties failed to agree on a proposed limitation of
family reunification for refugees fleeing armed conflict.[3][17] The coalition government led by Mark Rutte collapsed ahead of the anticipated November elections due to irreconcilable disagreements on migration issues.[18] The dispute arose from Rutte's proposal to tighten restrictions on the reunification of asylum seekers' families, aiming to reduce the number of migrants following a previous scandal involving overcrowded migration centers. CDA supported Rutte's proposal, while the opposition of CU and D66 led to a breakdown in negotiations. The parties decided unanimously that they could not remain together in the coalition.[19][20][21][22] The king asked that the prime minister and his government continue to carry out their duties in a caretaker capacity.[23] This could have been seen as a move by Rutte to keep migration on the center stage as his party was disunited on his nitrogen policies.[24]
Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the
House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a
snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by
open listproportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the
D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the
Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an
electoral threshold of 0.67%.[33] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[34][35]
Political parties and lead candidates
The following parties participated in the election and were on the ballot:
In addition to the conventional debates, a series of debates between two or three party leaders were hosted by news program
NOS op 3. The debates are broadcast through the programme's media outlets, such as radio and YouTube. The debates were broadcast in real-time and were held with a select group of young people present, who, in addition to the viewers on the YouTube live stream, asked the candidates various questions.[79]
On 20 November, Baudet was beaten with a beer bottle at a campaign event in
Groningen, and was later hospitalised. Numerous politicians denounced the attack, with Mark Rutte stating that the attack was "totally unacceptable".[83][84] The
far-left group AFA Noord claimed responsibility for the attack.[85][86]
The
Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) established a lead in the polls following its victory in the
2023 Dutch provincial elections, but started to decline in May 2023, and further declined when
Pieter Omtzigt announced he would contest the election with his newly established party
New Social Contract (NSC), which immediately performed well in the polls at the expense of BBB.[87] In the last polls before the election, NSC declined because it was unclear whether Pieter Omtzigt was willing to serve as prime minister should his party win the election. Their voters mostly diverted to VVD and PVV.[88]
Results
Geert Wilders' PVV won 37 seats of the 150-seat parliament, more than doubling their seats from the previous election in 2021. The left-leaning
GroenLinks–PvdA (GL-PvdA) finished second with 25 seats. The VVD party ended third with 24 seats. NSC came fourth with 20 seats.[7]
International media described the results as "one of the biggest political
upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[90] and as a
landslide victory for the
Party for Freedom (PVV).[91][92][93] Many analysts speculated that the rise of the PVV was due to great debate performances by Wilders in the weeks leading to the election. When migration became the largest issue of the election, it helped to boost the appeal of Wilders.[94] Some politics journalists opined that Wilders was able to build wider support by softening some of his statements after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz suggested she might include the PVV in negotiations and declaring in a debate that he would be "a Prime Minister for all Dutch people."[95] Others commented ahead of the election that newer anti-establishment and alternative parties to the PVV such as the Forum for Democracy, JA21, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract ran out of steam when voters, having experimented with them, moved back to the PVV because Wilders had remained a stronger and more consistent political figure.[96]
In addition, the leader of the
GroenLinks–PvdA coalition,
Frans Timmermans, was disliked by many right wingers, and since the
VVD and
NSC did not directly rule out working with either PVV or GL-PvdA, this led to right-wing voters consolidating around Wilders in order to prevent a Timmermans premiership.[97] The
Farmer–Citizen Movement saw a decline from their peak in the provincial elections in March, with many of their voters going towards NSC or PVV, for issues around nitrogen emissions were only a minor topic in the campaign.[98]
The results of the elections are expected to lead to protracted and complicated coalition talks. Outgoing Prime Minister
Mark Rutte will remain in a caretaker capacity, and the incumbent coalition government will continue as a
demissionary cabinet until the next coalition government is sworn in, which can take up to several months.
All parties of the
incumbent coalition government lost seats in this election.[8] Incumbent coalition party Democrats 66 leader
Rob Jetten blamed the senior coalition party VVD and its leader
Dilan Yeşilgöz for the successes of Wilders and the PVV in the election, saying on election night that "Yeşilgöz left the door wide open for Wilders" and blaming her party's campaign strategy for allowing "the politics of intolerance [to be] normalized while it should never be normal". Yeşilgöz denied her party's strategy was to blame for the PVV's success, saying, "It was not the VVD that made the PVV great. The voters did that."[101]
^Moses, Claire (22 November 2023).
"Far-Right Icon Predicted to Win Dutch Elections". The New York Times.
ISSN0362-4331.
Archived from the original on 22 November 2023. Retrieved 23 November 2023. Instead, it appeared, the disaffected sought a more dramatic change than usual and gravitated toward Mr. Wilders, delivering a relative landslide for the far right for the first time in a national election for the House of Representatives.