The
2024 United Kingdom general election was held on 4 July 2024. This list shows the most
marginal seats, ie those needing the smallest
swing to be won by each of the political parties, according to
notional results from the
previous election in 2019, as applied to the 2024 constituency boundaries.[1][2] The term "target seats" is sometimes used to describe seats requiring a low swing, but it is also used to refer to the seats on which a party has chosen to "target" its campaigning. The list of a party's target seats is not made public.[3][4]
The target seats for
Reform UK are based on results of the
Brexit Party in 2019.[11] The party didn't contest Conservative-held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in
North East England and
Wales.[12]
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by
Reform UK[13]
^
abThis seat was won by the Conservative Party in
a by-election.
^
abThis seat was won by the Labour Party in a
a by-election; part of this constituency was transferred to the new Hitchin constituency which is where the incumbent Labour MP stood.
^Leeds North West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
^Eltham was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with
Bromley and Chislehurst which was won by the Conservatives, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
^The incumbent is Independent MP
Angus MacNeil who was expelled from the SNP
^This seat was won by the Workers Party in
a by-election.
^
abNorth East Fife was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal, but in fact was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 13,479-vote (31.5%) majority.
^
abCaithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal but now has a notional SNP majority of over 3,000 votes; in fact it was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 10,489-vote (22.8%) majority.
^Westmorland and Lonsdale was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but was notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries; in fact it was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 21,472-vote (43.3%) majority.
^Moules, James (5 July 2024).
"Leeds North West general election result: Meet new MP Katie White". LabourList. Retrieved 23 July 2024. Labour's target seat list is not public, but this seat ranks 14th on LabourList's unofficial list of targets – based on the smallest swings required versus the 2019 election.