Combined with infrequent
earthquakes, climate-related disasters such as
floods, flash floods,
avalanches and heavy snowfalls on average affect over 200,000 people every year,[1] causing massive losses of lives, livelihoods and properties.[2][3][4][5] These interacting factors, particularly protracted conflicts which erode and challenge the ability to handle, adapt to and plan for climate change at individual and national levels, often turn climate change risks and hazards into disasters.
Although the country itself contributes only very little to global warming with regards to
greenhouse gas emissions, droughts due to climate change affect and will affect Afghanistan to a high degree.
The
World Bank projects that Afghanistan will see a warming higher than the global average due to global warming, with rises in maximum and minimum temperatures expected to be higher than rises in average temperature.[19] Since 1950, temperatures in Afghanistan have risen by 1.8 °C.[20] This leads and will lead to massive droughts.[21] Due to these increased droughts related to a warming of all regions of the country by 2.0 °C to 6.2 °C by 2090 depending on scenario, Afghanistan will be confronted with
desertification and
land degradation.[22] Majority of the country's
population is dealing with food insecurity,[23][24] with an increase projected. The increasing droughts could lead to a boom of the
opium production in Afghanistan, as opium is drought-resistant.[20]
In addition to droughts, extreme rainfall will increase due to climate change, which could lead to
landslides.[25][26]
The basin of the
Kunduz River has seen a decrease in
precipitation of 30% since the 1960s, which is compensated by increasing glacier melt.[27] Almost 14% of Afghanistan's glacier coverage was lost between 1990 and 2015. By 2100, the region could lose 60% of its glaciers. The number of glaciers and glacial lakes increases in Afghanistan at the moment, probably due to the breaking up of larger glaciers. Mountainous regions such as the area at the source of the
Amu Darya will be at great risk of
glacial lake outburst floods.[19]
A drought in 2017 and 2018 led to a massive
internal displacement within the country.[26]ActionAid claims that by 2050 around 5 million more people could become internally displaced within Afghanistan due to climate change.[26]
Afghan officials claimed in November 2022 that climate change was responsible for losses of more than two billion U.S. dollars in that year alone.[28]
Adaptation
In 2015, Afghanistan submitted a climate plan to the
United Nations. The plan outlined that by 2030 at least 2.5 billion U.S. dollars were needed for
watershed management and $4.5 billion for restoring
irrigation systems.[20]
Taliban officials has lamented the loss of hundreds of millions in aid money for environmental projects since
August 2021, protested Afghanistan's exclusion from
COP27, and has requested international aid in tackling climate change. The Taliban has argued that the climate crisis is not a political issue.[29][28]
^Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022).
"Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371.
doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
^Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022).
"Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos.
Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can.
The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.
Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.