From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 Queensland state election

←  2020 26 October 2024 2028 →

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Steven Miles David Crisafulli Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 15 December 2023 12 November 2020 2 February 2015
Leader's seat Murrumba Broadwater Traeger
Last election 52 seats, 39.57% 34 seats, 35.89% 3 seats, 2.48%
Current seats 51 [a] 35 [a] 3
Seats needed Steady Increase 12 Increase 44

 
ON
Leader No leader No leader
Party Greens One Nation
Last election 2 seats, 9.47% 1 seat, 7.12%
Current seats 2 1
Seats needed Increase 45 Increase 46

Map of electoral districts to be used at the election

Incumbent Premier

Steven Miles
Labor



The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years. [1] [2]

The Labor government will attempt to win a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal National Party, currently led by David Crisafulli, Queensland Greens, Pauline Hanson's One Nation and various other parties and independents. On 10 December 2023, Annastacia Palaszczuk announced her resignation after more than eight years in government, prompting a leadership vote to elect a new leader and subsequently Premier. [3]

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.

The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.

Key dates

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October. [4] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Background

Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned as premier in 2023 and was succeeded by Steven Miles. [5] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West. [6] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP. [7]

Campaign

The LNP is campaigning heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at the " Super Saturday" elections in the state (where local government elections were held alongside two by-elections in the traditionally Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West, the latter being gained by the LNP) with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues. [8] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes. [9]

Opinion polling and betting odds have the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier. [10] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years. [11]

Candidates

Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election. [12] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023. [13]

Preferences

One Nation leader and federal Senator Pauline Hanson confirmed that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her distrust of both major parties. [14]

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal National

Electoral pendulum

This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP 0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP 0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP 2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP 2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP 3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP 3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP 5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP 5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP 6.3
Inala Margie Nightingale ALP 6.7  [i]
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 6.7
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP 8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP 9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 9.9
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP 10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP 11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 11.4
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 11.9
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP 11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 13.2
Logan Linus Power ALP 13.4
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 13.8
Stretton James Martin ALP 13.9  [ii]
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 14.4
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP 17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP v ONP 20.7
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP 23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 26.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP 0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 1.3
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 1.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP 2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP 3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 3.3
Ipswich West Darren Zanow LNP 3.5  [iii]
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP 4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP 4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP 5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 11.4
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP 14.1
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP 16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 19.2
Callide Bryson Head LNP 21.7  [iv]
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN v ALP 5.3
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN v LNP 6.3
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP v ALP 9.0
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP v LNP 14.8
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND v LNP 15.8
Hill Shane Knuth KAP v ALP 22.5
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP v ALP 24.7
Notes
  1. ^ In 2024 there was a by-election after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned from her seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  2. ^ In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  3. ^ In 2024 there was a by-election after Labor MP Jim Madden resigned from his seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  4. ^ In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

Opinion polling

In the lead-up to the state election, a number of polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Graphical summary

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Sample Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP LNP GRN ON KAP OTH ALP LNP
February – May 2024 RedBridge [21] [22] 880 28% 47% 12% 13% 43% 57%
February – May 2024 Resolve Strategic [23] [24] 947 26% 43% 13% 8% 1% 9% 44.5% 55.5%
9–17 April 2024 YouGov [25] 1,092 27% 44% 15% 10% 1% 3% 44% 56%
16 March 2024 The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala.
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll [26] 1,037 30% 42% 13% 8% 46% 54%
13 February 2024 uComms [27] [28] 1,743 34.2% 37.3% 12.2% 7.7% 3.9% 4.7% 50% 50%
26 December 2023 uComms [29] 1,911 34.4% 36.2% 49% 51%
15 December 2023 Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland.
13 December 2023 uComms [30] 1,143 34% 38.2% 11.9% 7.8% 3.3% 4.8% 48% 52%
10 December 2023 Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland.
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic [31] [32] 940 33% 37% 12% 8% 10% 49.5% 50.5%
4–10 October 2023 YouGov [33] 1,013 33% 41% 13% 8% 2% 3% 48% 52%
26 August – 6 September 2023 RedBridge [34] [35] [36] [37] 2,012 26% 41% 14% 9% 10% 45% 55%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic [3] 943 32% 38% 11% 8% 1% 10% [b] 48% 52%
29 June – 2 July 2023 Freshwater Strategy [38] 1,065 34% 40% 11% 15% 49% 51%
17 January – 17 April 2023 Resolve Strategic [39] 943 35% 33% 12% 7% 1% 11% [c] 52.5% 47.5%
30 March – 5 April 2023 YouGov [40] 1,015 33% 39% 13% 10% 2% 49% 51%
1–8 December 2022 YouGov [41] ~1,000 34% 38% 13% 11% 4% 50% 50%
21 August – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic [42] 924 37% 35% 11% 6% 1% 10% [d] 53.2% 46.8%
23–30 June 2022 YouGov [43] ~1,000 34% 38% 14% 10% 1% 3% 50% 50%
18–23 February 2022 YouGov [44] ~1,000 39% 38% 10% 8% 1% 4% 52% 48%
31 October 2020 election 39.6% 35.9% 9.5% 7.1% 2.5% 5.7% 53.2% 46.8%

Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Preferred Premier

Date Polling firm Sample Preferred Premier
Miles Crisafulli Don't know
February – May 2024 Resolve Strategic [23] 947 28% 39% 33%
9–17 Apr 2024 YouGov [45] 1,092 27% 40% 33%
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll [26] 1,037 37% 43% 20%
13 February 2024 uComms [27] [28] 1,743 49% 51%
26 December 2023 uComms [29] 1,911 47.8% 52.2%
Date Polling firm Sample Preferred Premier
Palaszczuk Crisafulli Don't know
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic [31] [32] 940 34% 39% 27%
10 Nov 2023 SEC Newgate [46] 600 30% 34% 36%
4–10 Oct 2023 YouGov [33] 1,013 35% 37% 28%
December 2023 Resolve Strategic [31] [32] 940 34% 39% 27%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic [3] 943 36% 37% 27%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR/Freshwater Strategy [38] 1,065 44% 45% 11%
17 Jan – 17 Apr 2023 Resolve Strategic [39] 943 39% 31% 31%
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 YouGov [40] 1,015 31% 29% 40%
1–8 Dec 2022 YouGov [41] ~1,000 39% 28% 33%
21 Aug – 4 Dec 2022 Resolve Strategic [42] 924 42% 30% 28%
23–30 Jun 2022 YouGov [43] ~1,000 41% 28% 31%

Satisfaction ratings

Date Polling firm Sample Miles Crisafulli
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
February – May 2024 RedBridge [21] [22] 880 –11% +14%
February – May 2024 Resolve Strategic [23] 947 –15% +14%
9–17 Apr 2024 YouGov [45] 1,092 25% 47% 28% –22% 40% 26% 34% +14%
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll [26] 1,037 38% 49% 13% -11% 47% 33% 20% +14%
13 February 2024 uComms [27] [28] 1,743 44.2% 25.2% 25.2% +19% 41.7% 18.7% 31.2% +23%
13 December 2023 uComms [30] 1,143 38.4% 25.9% 35.6% +12.5%
Date Polling firm Sample Palaszczuk Crisafulli
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic [31] [32] 940 –17% +9%
4–10 Oct 2023 YouGov [33] 1,013 32% 52% 16% –20% 37% 26% 37% +11%
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic [31] [32] 940 –17% +9%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic [3] 943 –15% +7%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR/Freshwater Strategy [38] 1,065 39% 47% 14% –8%
1–8 Dec 2022 YouGov [41] ~1,000 40% 41% 19% –1% 31% 27% 42% +4%
23–30 Jun 2022 YouGov [43] ~1,000 45% 30% 16% +15% 31% 23% 46% +8%
18–23 Feb 2022 YouGov [44] ~1,000 50% 36% 14% +14%

Notes

  1. ^ a b Labor lost the seat of Ipswich West to the LNP at a by-election in 2024, increasing the LNP's seat total to 35 and decreasing Labor's seat total to 51.
  2. ^ Independents: 8%, Other parties: 2%
  3. ^ Independents: 10%, Other parties: 1%
  4. ^ Independents: 7%, Other parties: 3%

References

  1. ^ The Queensland Electoral System Queensland Parliament
  2. ^ Queensland referendum: Vote on four-year parliamentary terms passes ABC News 5 April 2016
  3. ^ a b c d Remeikis, Amy (10 December 2023). "Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk retires from politics". The Guardian. ISSN  0261-3077. Retrieved 10 December 2023. Cite error: The named reference ":0" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  4. ^ "Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015" (PDF). www.legislation.qld.gov.au.
  5. ^ Remeikis, Amy (10 December 2023). "Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk retires from politics". The Guardian. ISSN  0261-3077. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  6. ^ "'Send a strong message': Why a Labor seat could be in play in Queensland's upcoming by-election". ABC News. 8 March 2024. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  7. ^ "Shockwaves as voters deliver Miles government a huge blow in by-elections". 7NEWS. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  8. ^ "'A kick in the pants with steel cap boots': What do two 'very bad' by-elections mean for Labor in Queensland?". ABC News. 17 March 2024. Retrieved 15 May 2024.
  9. ^ "Miles concedes his government faces wipe-out if local elections replicated". www.9news.com.au. 17 March 2024. Retrieved 15 May 2024.
  10. ^ https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fsteven-miles-says-election-wipeout-very-likely-as-new-poll-puts-lnp-in-box-seat%2Fnews-story%2F7ec5fecda60b5a839b958decfe05f957&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append&nk=10fc24e8df3cec35599142367b446702-1714116206
  11. ^ "The most brutal poll result for a Qld premier in a decade". Retrieved 15 May 2024.
  12. ^ Cosoleto, Tara (26 March 2023). "LNP names candidates 18 months out from Queensland poll". Brisbane Times. AAP. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  13. ^ McCarthy, Isaac (6 October 2023). "Katters announce Malanda man, ex-SAS soldier Bruce Logan as Cook candidate". Cairns Post. Retrieved 19 October 2023.
  14. ^ https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Fstate-election%2Fone-nation-to-preference-lnp-at-queensland-state-election-in-october-despite-pauline-hansons-distrust-of-david-crisafulli%2Fnews-story%2F696ea31c756fb37531a6e9a0455a6a66&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE
  15. ^ Elks, Sarah (11 October 2023). "Stirling Hinchliffe calls it quits after 17 years to 'put family first'". The Australian. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
  16. ^ Johnson, Hayden (13 November 2023). "Premier to lose another Labor MP at 2024 poll". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 14 November 2023.
  17. ^ McKenna, Kate (22 February 2024). "Queensland Attorney-General Yvette D'Ath to quit politics at the end of the year". ABC News. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  18. ^ McCormack, Madura (16 June 2023). "Oodgeroo MP Mark Robinson confirms retirement at next election, paving way for Amanda Stoker's political comeback". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
  19. ^ McCormack, Madura (6 September 2023). "LNP MP for Burleigh Michael Hart won't recontest 2024 state election". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
  20. ^ Gall, Sally (18 October 2023). "Gregory MP calls time on representing largest electorate in Queensland". Queensland Country Life. Retrieved 21 October 2023.
  21. ^ a b "Queensland Labor government facing election wipe-out". www.9news.com.au. 5 June 2024. Retrieved 5 June 2024.
  22. ^ a b "Queensland vote intention and leader ratings" (PDF). RedBridge Group.
  23. ^ a b c Dennien, Matt (21 May 2024). "Crisafulli's LNP climbs higher against Miles' Labor leadership". Brisbane Times.
  24. ^ Bonham, Kevin. "#ResolvePM Qld (state) ALP 26 LNP 43 Grn 13 ON 8 IND 8 KAP 1 other 1 (IMO IND too high others too low but that matters little). My 2PP estimate 55.5-44.5 to LNP. Sample over last 3 months. #qldpol". X.
  25. ^ Johnson, Hayden; Burns, Christopher (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Labor on track to lose 21 seats at Queensland state election". Courier Mail.
  26. ^ a b c Lynch, Lydia (15 March 2024). "Newspoll: Queensland's Liberal National Party in box seat for majority government". The Australian.
  27. ^ a b c Johnson, Hayden (23 February 2024). "Polling shock: Battlelines drawn as explosive new poll delivers boilover no one saw coming". Courier Mail.
  28. ^ a b c "uComms: 50-50 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 23 February 2024.
  29. ^ a b McCormack, Madura (26 December 2023). "UComms poll: Steven Miles's ascension makes little difference to Labor fortunes". Courier Mail.
  30. ^ a b Smee, Ben (21 December 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Guardian Australia.
  31. ^ a b c d e Dennien, Matt (5 December 2023). "Support for Labor steadies, despite dip in Palaszczuk's popularity". Brisbane Times.
  32. ^ a b c d e "Resolve Strategic: LNP 37, Labor 33, Greens 12 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  33. ^ a b c Johnson, Hayden (26 October 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Courier Mail.
  34. ^ Bennett, Stephanie (9 September 2023). "New Qld poll shows 'strong mood' to dump Labor". Courier Mail.
  35. ^ Tapper, Michelle; Iorio, Kelsie (9 September 2023). "LNP gains more ground over Labor in polls, surges ahead in primary vote". ABC News (Australia).
  36. ^ "Weekend miscellany: Voice and Queensland polls, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2023.
  37. ^ "Queensland vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 9 September 2023.
  38. ^ a b c Ludlow, Mark (5 July 2023). "Palaszczuk on track to lose in 2024: poll". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
  39. ^ a b Dennien, Matt (19 April 2023). "Crashing the parties: Voters mark leaders down but Palaszczuk keeps her edge". Brisbane Times.
  40. ^ a b McKay, Jack (21 April 2023). "Annastacia Palaszczuk's standing as preferred premier sinks to lowest level since she took up top job". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
  41. ^ a b c "YouGov poll reveals LNP and Labor neck and neck". The Courier Mail. 11 December 2022.
  42. ^ a b "Palaszczuk Labor still favoured by voters at political halfway mark". Brisbane Times. 12 December 2022.
  43. ^ a b c "Palaszczuk shockwaves: Labor's lead obliterated, shock result if election held today". The Courier Mail. 4 July 2022.
  44. ^ a b "LNP closing the gap on Labor's lead in the polls, Annastacia Palaszczuk viewed less favourably". The Courier Mail. 25 February 2022.
  45. ^ a b McCormack, Madura (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Steven Miles more unpopular than Campbell Newman before 2014 election defeat". Courier Mail.
  46. ^ Pierce, Jeremy; Mulvaney, Mikaela (10 November 2023). "Shock poll result for Queensland government". Courier Mail.

External links