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Scenarios for matches on 2-4 September in the
2012 Africa Cup of Nations qualification where teams could (1) clinch being no worse than 1 of the 2 best 2nd place teams or (2) be unable to qualify even if they can still finish 2nd, based on results of matches being played in other groups the same days. If a team is listed as "possibly affected" under a category but have no conditions listed, it means that there is no scenario in which they would not fit the category. For example, in Group F the worst possible finish for Burkina Faso is 2nd place with 9 points; therefor, in all the "Teams with X points will advance" categories, Burkina Faso are listed with no conditions because no matter what happens in their group they have already clinched that. If a listed scenario is struck through it means that team would already have been eliminated by the same conditions at a lower point level.
Teams with max 5 pts ARE eliminated
Group B; Madagascar, Ethiopia
Group C; Mozambique
Group E Congo DR, Cameroon
Group F; Namibia
Group G Egypt
Group H Benin, Rwanda
Group J; Guinea-Bissau
Additional teams would would finish 2nd with 5 points or less:
Group A; Zimbabwe if they draw with Cape Verde
Group B; Nigeria if they don't defeat Guinea and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Group D (additional possible scenarios for all 4 teams if Tanzania and Algeria both win)
Central African Republic if
they lose to Algeria and Tanzania don't defeat Morocco
both matches draw
Morocco if they lose to Tanzania and Algeria don't defeat the Central African Republic
Group F; Gambia if they don't defeat Burkina Faso
Group G; South Africa and Sierra Leone if they draw
Group H; Burundi if they don't defeat Ivory Coast or Rwanda don't defeat Benin
Group J; Uganda if
they lose to Kenya and Guinea-Bissau defeat Angola
they draw and Angola win
Teams with max 6 pts will be eliminated if any ONE of
Group A, either
Cape Verde defeat Zimbabwe and Liberia don't defeat Mali
Mali win and Cape Verde and Zimbabwe don't draw
Group B, either
Nigeria defeat Guinea
Nigeria and Guinea draw and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya don't defeat Zambia
Group D, Morocco defeat Tanzania and Central African Republic defeat Algeria
Group G, Niger defeat Egypt and South Africa and Sierra Leone don't draw
Group J, Kenya defeat Uganda and Angola defeat Guinea-Bissau
Teams affected:
Group A, Mali if
they lose to Liberia and Cape Verde and Zimbabwe don't draw
they draw and Zimbabwe win
Group B, Nigeria if they lose to Guinea
Group C, Zambia if they lose to Libya
Group D
Algeria and Tanzania
Morrocco if
they lose to Tanzania or Central African Republic defeat Algeria
Group F, Gambia
Group G, Niger if they don't defeat Egypt and South Africa and Sierra Leone don't draw
Group H, Burundi
Group J, Angola if they don't defeat Guinea-Bissau or Uganda defeat Kenya
Teams with max 7 pts will be eliminated if any TWO of
Group B, either
Nigeria defeat Guinea 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Nigeria win by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar win
Group C, Zambia and Libya draw
Group D, Morocco defeat Tanzania and Central African Republic defeat Algeria
Group I, Sudan and Ghana draw
Teams affected:
Group A
Cape Verde, if Liberia don't defeat Mali
Zimbabwe if Mali defeat Liberia
Group B
Nigeria if
they defeat Guinea by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
they don't win
Guinea if they lose to Nigeria 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya if they lose to Zambia
Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone if they don't draw and Niger defeat Egypt
Group I, the loser between Sudan and Ghana
Group J, Kenya if Angola defeat Guinea-Bissau
Teams with 9 pts ADVANCE
Group B
Guinea if Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Teams with 8 pts will advance if any TWO of:
Group B, either
Nigeria don't defeat Guinea
Nigeria win 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
Nigeria win by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar don't win
Group C, Zambia and Libya don't draw
Group D, Central African Republic don't defeat Algeria or Morocco don't defeat Tanzania
Group I, Sudan and Ghana don't draw
Teams affected:
Group C, Libya if they draw with Zambia
Group D, Morocco or Central African Republic if they both win
Group I, Sudan if they draw with Ghana
Teams with 7 pts will advance if any FIVE of:
Group A, either
Liberia defeat Mali
Cape Verde and Zimbabwe draw
Liberia and Mali draw and Zimbabwe win
Group B, either
Guinea defeat Nigeria
Guinea and Nigeria draw and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya defeat Zambia
Group D, Central African Republic don't defeat Algeria or Morocco don't defeat Tanzania
Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone draw or Niger don't defeat Egypt
Group J, Kenya don't defeat Uganda or Angola don't defeat Guinea-Bissau
Teams affected:
Group A, the winner between Cape Verde and Zimbabwe
Group B
Guinea
Nigeria if
they defeat Guinea
they draw and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya
Group G, the winner between South Africa and Sierra Leone
Group I, Ghana and Sudan
Group J, Kenya if they defeat Uganda
Teams with 6 pts will advance if ALL SEVEN of:
Group A, Cape Verde and Zimbabwe draw
Group B, Nigeria don't defeat Guinea and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Group D, any of the following (also depends on tiebreakers to determine 2nd and last place teams)
Algeria defeat Central African Republic
Tanzania defeat Morocco
both matches draw
Group F, Gambia don't defeat Burkina Faso
Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone draw
Group H, Rwanda don't defeat Benin or Burundi don't defeat Ivory Coast
Group J, either
Kenya defeat Uganda and Guinea-Bissau defeat Angola
Kenya and Uganda draw and Angola win
Because Groups C and I already have clinched (as a group) a minimum of 6 and 7 points respectively, this scenario applies only to Zambia in Group C