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Hello :) Is there any page containing areal statistics of temperature and weather from past years and months?
I'd like to compare the usual weathers around the world --
Gxojo 17:43, 5 Mar 2005 (UTC)
Hello. Good stuff. I think a subject as important as this merits further expansion of this article. For example, sections could be added under the following headings:
The dominance of human interpretation of observational data, or extrapolation of observations into the future. How NWP has relatively low skill in this time range due to lack of resolution in model and data assimilation system. Future improvements possible due to mesoscale data assimilation. The idea that at short range you can expect to predict smaller scale features with skill whereas at long range you don't expect to be able to do so.
The increasing dominance of NWP in forecasts. The concept that at increasing range you can only expect to predict larger scale features with skill and must give statistical forecasts of smaller features (e.g. forecasting "scattered showers" rather than giving forecasts of individual shower clouds).
The benefit of using ensemble forecasts in this timeframe.
Also, a more rigorous description of the forecasting system might be useful.
ALTERNATIVE WEATHER FORECASTING
It would be instructive for someone to add a discussion of Irving P. Krick and Harry Geise and their attemtps at long-range weather forecasting using non-standard techniques. I believe that Krick was Dwight Eisenhower's lead forecaster for the Normandy invasion, and Giese was a popular and legendary forecaster in the San Francisco Bay Area and KCRA TV in Sacramento for many years. The weather bureau hated him but he was much more accurate than they.
When discussing alternative forecasting it might be smart to decrease the size of the section discussing the process that pilots go through to get a diagram for the weather. It goes off on a tangent a little too much with respect to the other topics. Although an interesting topic, it diverges from the main idea that is discussed with the different types of weather forecasting.
108.41.137.18 (
talk)
16:01, 9 June 2020 (UTC) SK
RCA
-- geodynamo 08:59, 16 Jun 2005 (UTC)
OK, I've done a bit of restructuring. I hope nobody minds that I have changed it quite a bit. I tried to keep most of the original content in there, but added lots and re-arranged things. I think it is more up to date now about what actually goes on to produce a weather forecast these days. There's still plenty more that can be added. The history section in particular is a bit sketchy. geodynamo 20:19, 24 Jun 2005 (UTC)
Sorry, but I removed the section headings because they gave the impression that the text of the whole of the remainder of the article came under the second section heading, whereas it actually refers only to a little text which follows it.
I can see what you're trying to achieve, and the bulleted list is my attempt at another way of doing this.
-- Trainspotter 08:36, 30 Jul 2003 (UTC)
Could there be a comment on...the interesting grammar that we...see on forecasts, such as numerous periods everywhere in pl...aces that don't seem to make...sense. Please tell us...why! CoolGuy 05:19, 22 Septe...mber 2005 (UTC)
I'm having a hard time understanding what the difference is between this article and Meteorology, which appears to be about the same subject. Is there some reason these are two separate articles with a fair amount of duplicated content? If so, what is it? If not, should these articles be merged? -- Foogod 21:22, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
Meteorology is the scientific study of the earth’s atmosphere, including both land and oceans. It comprises of fundamental topics such as the composition, structure, and motion of the atmosphere. This study helps to understand and predict atmospheric activities. The significant difference between the two is that weather forecasting predicts the state of the earth’s atmosphere, and meteorology is the scientific and in-depth study of that state. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Williamliamjones ( talk • contribs) 11:27, 12 January 2022 (UTC)
in the first paragraph it isn said that humans have been predicting weathr informally for ob - a rather strange expression Electrolaser89 ( talk) 12:29, 17 January 2010 (UTC)
Hello: I am new to Wikipedia. So first thing I did was check on the quality of the site by going to my area of expertise, weather forecasting. I have been predicting the weather for decades. The entry was on the whole good. As I was going through it, I noted that the website I have settled on as the best source for computer model output maps and which includes excellent "how to read" material for the inexperienced student of the topic, was not included in either the disertation or the links that followed. So I added it. The site in question is weather.unysis.com. There are complete current maps sets there for the six primary weathe computer models now in use in the United States. Within 24 hours my edits had been removed. I wonder who and why? Talk to me, pleas.
John Coleman wxguy@cox.net jcoleman@kusi.com
I have looked under the history tab and note that apparantly a user named Nikilet (?) removed my addition pegging it as commerical spam. Hardly. I have not relationship with Unisys and the site has no advertising or user fees. It is a pure an internet site as you will find. And it certainly is not any more commerical that The Weather Channel (Of which I am the founder) or Accuweather or Weather Underground which are all included. Please.
John
Nick, Clearly you are the boss of all matters so I will not try to make anymore edits, but I will correct one point in your post above. The unisys site provides the AVN for the US, Europe, Eastern Asia, South America and Austrailia, the MRF for all of the previous sectors plus a northern hemisphere view and the ECMWF in US and Europe views.
John Coleman
Nick,
A apologize for my return to this discusion, but after thinking about it, I do want to add another comment. It is relative to your statement "Finally, as an encyclopedia, contributions should do the explaining for the reader, not just point him to another source." I think it is well to reconsider this position. In the 21st century, internet world, the entire web is an encyclopedia of sorts. I see Wikipedia as a very worthy effort to provide basic and detailed, unbiased, well organized educational material. I salute that. I came here to try to benefit from it. However, to put the entire graduate level course in the weather forecasting subset of meteorology into this on line book would be an overkill. After a solid introduction and basic education on the topic, I think providing links to further an interested informal student of the topic to further study is the correct approach. Allow me to give you another link idea to illustrate. Here in the United States, the National Weather Service (Federal government forecasting agency) has over the recent three years produced a truly outstanding internet web network for meteorological information and forecasts. An each of the more than 100 forecast offices around the nation, the forecaster on dury writes a forecast discussion once every four hours and posts in on the web. These discusions are highly educational for the novice, introducing and explaining the interpretation of the model output, how it has been modfied for the current forecast and introducing important local atmospheric effects. There also links to the NWS Glossery which is a wonderful educational tool. To refer readers to Weather.com or Accuweather and not to the NWS and Unisys is a major error. And to not link for futher learning to resources that the professionals in the field kn know are very worthwhile is poor thinking, in my opinion. Fifty years ago hard bound encyclopedias were self contained and left the reader to fend for themselves in further study. We do not have to do that in the digital age and in my judgement we should provide links...many of them. We can and should debate what links are worthy, each contributing the knowlege of his/her experience, and someone such as you should have the final say, but be hostile to any links I think is wrong.
Excuse my disertation, but the rejection of meager effor to contribute set my mind into motion and I had to put my thoughts into written word for your consideration.
No personal offense intended.
My best,
John Coleman
TV Nova's only relation with Weather forecasting was, that it broadcasted a "nude weather reports" programm. That's not a sufficient reason to be listed in a serious weather article. That's why I removed it. J. 23:12, 15 July 2006 (UTC)
Surely there have been methodologically valid studies assessing the accuracy of weather forecasts promulgated by government agencies. If weather forecasting is a science, what are the accepted standards for judging whether a prediction model is successful, and do practitioners today achieve that standard? For any given timeframe (e.g. a three-day forecast), how much more accurate is the science of weather forecasting in 2006 than it was in 1956, for example? A Google search turned up this article, but surely there are other sources available that assess the predictions of weather forecasters on a scientific basis? -- Mathew5000 22:16, 4 June 2006 (UTC)
The Editors of this article seem wholly obsessed with saying how good weather forecasting has become, but have not given any justifcation! As the above user has stated, why is there no reference to tests of accuracy? One example from the UK shows that forecasters have a long way to go. In the Spring of 2007, they predicted a long hot summer, but we have had a very wet summer so far. No sign of any apologies or explanations from the UK Met Office. Peterlewis 15:57, 10 July 2007 (UTC)
Is anyone listening out there re: my query about accuracy of forecasting? Surely there must have been surveys of forecast accuracy, which is just blandly mentioned in the article by saying that it is less accurate as time goes by. Peterlewis 20:18, 22 August 2007 (UTC)
Unfortunately weather forecasting has changed dramatically in the last twenty years and not for the better. The addition of computer models and satellites in local television broadcasts has created a level of confidence in accuracy that is not reflected in the evidence. Global Warming has introduced politics into every single aspect of weather forecasting such that politicians and broadcast producers are often directing meteorologists as to what information is provided to the public. Finally Internet based forecasting is often provided on a layered subscription basis with information being omitted intentionally in order to generate revenue thereby skewing the accuracy of reported forecasts based on financial objectives.
What can Wikipedia do in addressing the clear problems with weather forecasting today? Unfortunately nothing. As has been said many times, Wikipedia is neither commercial nor political and is loath to be involved in either, lest we become just another pay to play Internet resource.
Weather Forecasting will continue to become more and more politicized and commercialized, as the primary objective is not the pursuit of accuracy but rather establishing and following a particular agenda.
I will be starting a six-month analysis of weather forecasting by local and regional meteorologist to establish the level of accuracy and hope to publish by the end of the year.
The most negative effect of the new weather forecasting paradigm is what I’m seeing here in Lake County Florida, which was guaranteed 100% to receive at least tropical storm force winds and rain. Even people, who would normally regard the meteorologist and the technology used by them as reliable, are now referring to them as clueless and never intend to rely on them again.
That is a scary prospect for a state that has severe weather as frequently as any state in the Union. Wdhowellsr ( talk) 19:38, 19 August 2008 (UTC)
I too, am concerned that this article cites no scientific studies of the accuracy of weather forecasting. --RedHouse18 18:07, 14 January 2009 (UTC) —Preceding unsigned comment added by RedHouse18 ( talk • contribs)
Same here! I really would like to know more about forecast accuracy. There must be studies! Like, average temperature in a 3-day forecast was correct at X % of the times, or something like this. JohnnieDanger ( talk) 19:58, 11 December 2009 (UTC)
When it comes to weather forecasting accuracy, longer-range forecasts are less accurate. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests a seven-day forecast can only predict the weather about 80 percent of the time. A five-day forecast can correctly predict the weather about 90 percent of the time. However, beyond ten days, a prediction is only right about half the time. But in modern times, the combination of AI and ML technologies has helped the accuracy rates go higher. These technologies use data from the past and combine them with the present data and satellite imagery and sensors, which produces a higher accuracy percentage. Forecasting the weather may have been a manual process in the past, but with new technologies emerging every day, it has become easier to generate forecasts with better accuracy. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Williamliamjones ( talk • contribs) 11:38, 17 January 2022 (UTC)
All you need to do is add a reference section with relevent references, and this article would be B. Thegreatdr 11:52, 24 October 2006 (UTC)
This article is halfway there. More inline references are needed in order to submit it to GAC. Thegreatdr ( talk) 13:26, 18 January 2008 (UTC)
look at the first line of the article Arttic00 17:42, 7 November 2007 (UTC)
I really feel that it is not necessary to have such a list of commercial organisation which provide weather forecasts. Wikipedia is not an internet directory. Plus wikipedia is not the place for advertising. Also all the external links should be in the external links section so the article is consistent with other articles.-- Benjaminevans82 ( talk) 00:33, 8 December 2007 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
This review is transcluded from Talk:Weather forecasting/GA1. The edit link for this section can be used to add comments to the review. It has taken a while, but I believe this article has enough information and references (finally) to achieve GA. All reviews and comments are welcome. Thegreatdr ( talk) 00:08, 28 May 2008 (UTC) GA review – see WP:WIAGA for criteria
Farside6 ( talk) 21:34, 27 June 2008 (UTC)
Thegreatdr ( talk) 00:08, 28 May 2008 (UTC)
The Template:Cquote in the middle of the history section seems out of place. I would suggest removing it. Thoughts? Farside6 ( talk) 04:55, 25 June 2008 (UTC)
A new article Weather forecasting (marine) should be made that describes stand-alone weather forecast devices for use at sea (eg using radiofax, rtty, navtex). Also mention the Elector SDR Marine weather receiver which is a low-cost, open-source receiver (might be useful for houseboats of people in developing world)
Also, does maritime weather forecasts (thus forecast for eg certain areas in the middle of the ocean) exist trough the new internet-based media (RSS, podcasts, weather.com, ...). Could be used if satellite dish/access is present on boat —Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.246.148.68 ( talk) 14:23, 22 March 2009 (UTC)
"Radio weather forecasts date to 1923, when E. B. Rideout began broadcasting in Boston. Televised weathercasts were first aired on the Weather Bureau Dumont Network in 1947 by James M. 'Jimmie' Fidler." [1]
Worth a mention? Better at Radio broadcasting/ History of television? Mapsax ( talk) 20:01, 3 March 2010 (UTC)
What level of accuracy at any given time horizon can currently be achieved, using what techniques? -- Beland ( talk) 02:51, 24 October 2010 (UTC)
This is illuminating but stops short of explaining when and how each piece of information was developed. For example, in the Three Men in a Boat, the Englishman related reading the paper with " fronts" moving across Europe. This is fairly sophisticated IMO. And no, no history there either. Student7 ( talk) 01:48, 6 October 2011 (UTC)
The weather forecasting is the application of science and technolgy — Preceding unsigned comment added by 216.109.12.254 ( talk) 15:15, 18 November 2011 (UTC)
Weather forecasting uses science and technology to forecast atmospheric conditions for a certain period over a specific location. In the past, it was primarily focused on variations in barometric pressure, existing weather patterns, and sky state or cloud cover. Still, in recent times, it is done using an amalgamation of data from the past, satellite imagery, and most importantly, AI technologies for accuracy. Weather predictions are created by gathering objective data about the actual condition of the atmosphere at a particular location and using meteorology to predict how the weather will behave in the future. There are various uses of weather forecasting in day-to-day life; it can be as simple as deciding whether to take an umbrella with you on your work or to determine your outfit. It can also help various sectors like agriculture and farming, logistics, aviation, among others, for their operations and smooth functioning. Weather forecasting is crucial since it also helps determine the future of climate change. It helps to monitor climate patterns, and its insights can help mitigate its risks. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Williamliamjones ( talk • contribs) 11:34, 17 January 2022 (UTC)
I apologize if I'm not doing this correctly (I'm not a regular contributor and I'm not acquainted with coding and etiquette) but the first section of the weather forecasting page is jacked up. Looks like someone cut and pasted indiscriminately in a few places. Nonsense words, a sentence starting in the middle, etc. If someone who works this page regularly could take a look at it and see what happened, that would be great. Mattvsmith ( talk) 09:05, 27 March 2013 (UTC)
but not too bold I hope. I have hacked out of the article completely a list of types of models. These are very generic and not specific to weather forecasting and were presented without any context. I'm happy to talk about this though. I'd also like to cut the section How models create forecasts out almost completely. It is covered much better in the Numerical weather prediction article. I think that this article should have a short explanation in the section Use of forecast models. This would probably be a little too bold to do without asking for input so please tell me what you think.-- NHSavage ( talk) 21:56, 9 February 2014 (UTC)
/there are some semantic issues though/
The probability of the occurrence of a weather phenomenon (e.g. precipitation)
is the expected value (of that phenomenon occurring)
of a large number of virtual outcomes,
for certain periods of time (quanta of time)
and the amount of a specific measurable effect of that weather phenomenon (over a threshold)
— Preceding
unsigned comment added by
2.84.222.127 (
talk)
19:34, 16 August 2015 (UTC)
I wanted to add a link to forecast skill (which I just cleaned up) and there was no appropriate section (what discussion exists seems to be subordinated to specific techniques, which doesn't rub me right) so I added a thin top-level section. My vote would be to expand this section, poaching existing discussion, but others might prefer to fold this into the existing subordinated presentation. — MaxEnt 02:03, 11 December 2016 (UTC)
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The article currently says:
This confusing and important subject needs more attention. Most sources of overnight low temp predictions are frustratingly vague about the hours covered by the prediction. The article text WC link re 7pm-7am is dead. (We need a good link to a better source about this.) How true is it? How general is it? In different countries? What happens when the low temp is not actually within this 12 hour period? Can we assume that all historical records use strictly midnight to midnight "days"? Which creates a confusing inconsistency between overnight low predictions and past records -- this is important enough to warrant a clear statement in this and/or other relevant WP articles... (Aside comment: many WP talk pages are over-aggressively archived by robots. Good to see this talk page stretching back over a decade still intact whole, have this feeling of community group work over time.)- 73.61.15.24 ( talk) 21:46, 15 January 2018 (UTC)
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Surely the people we see and hear presenting the weather forecast deserve at least a section in this page, if not their own page? There is huge public interest in this role (its history and societal significance) and these people, who may be professional forecasters, or have career paths that intersect with acting and celebrity - or notoriety: George Cowling, Michael Fish, Punxsutawney Phil, naked weather forecasters. See this Guardian article. 112.119.77.63 ( talk) 17:45, 17 October 2019 (UTC)
Could this be worked into the article? Mapsax ( talk) 01:34, 2 February 2021 (UTC)