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This article is wholly laudatory toward Celente. I doubt that there is a complete lack of quality, citable criticism. The final paragraph has serious NPOV issues concerning Gov. Paterson's tax hikes in New York. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.247.36.247 ( talk) 03:31, 29 December 2008 (UTC)
(The preceding paragraph is noneffective. The first and second sentence seem contradictory, apparently due to an error in the second sentence. Perhaps it should say "I doubt there is any quality, citable criticism." Can the writer edit or clarify?) — Preceding unsigned comment added by 174.226.129.143 ( talk) 12:17, 3 January 2013 (UTC)
Certainly would be nice if someone would list some of the predictions he got wrong alongside those he got right. -- 65.184.40.166 ( talk) 02:37, 16 February 2009 (UTC)
"" The neutrality of this article is disputed. Please see the discussion on the talk page. Please do not remove this message until the dispute is resolved.
Please note: The above label is meant to indicate that a discussion is ongoing, and hence that the article contents are disputed and volatile. If you add the above code to an article which seems to be biased to you, but there is no prior discussion of the bias, you need to at least leave a note on the article's talk page describing what you consider unacceptable about the article. The note should address the problem with enough specificity to allow constructive discussion towards a resolution, such as identifying specific passages, elements, or phrasings that are problematic.""
Since the person that added the neutrality caution did not follow Wikipedia's quidelines, I will remove it. Gandydancer ( talk) 15:25, 3 March 2009 (UTC)
This is Laura289. I work at the Trends Research Institute where we have copies of very early articles written about Gerald Celente. I added information on Celente's predictions of the 1987 Stock Market collapse (taken from one of these early articles) as well as a quote from his Trends 2000 book to support his prediction of the Asian Crisis in 1997. Also, with Mr. Celente's permission, I have added numerous quotes taken from various issues of his Trends Journal, a subscriber-based publication. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Laura289 ( talk • contribs) 20:09, 8 May 2009 (UTC)
I have not investigated Gerald Celente other than a brief Google search as well as reading this article, but my sense is that Wikipedians (neutral ones) should do a much more thorough search of Gerald Celente. I'm 52. I've been around, I read stuff, I think. And how come I haven't heard about Gerald Celente until recently? Wouldn't a real futurist have a proven track record of verifiable predictions (including incorrect ones) in respected publications? That he's supposedly appeared on a few TV shows doesn't vouch for his credibility in my view. I do not see solid evidence that confirm his claims to having predicted past events. Are there experts who can vouchsafe for his reputation? The most solid-looking reference (NY Times) is recent and doesn't give specific evidence of any past predictions. I see warning flags and Wikipedia's reputation is on the line here, too. There are some aspects where I think his predictions may be right but I'm looking for a proven track record and don't see one. Tomwsulcer ( talk) 13:13, 25 May 2009 (UTC)Tomwsulcer Tomwsulcer ( talk) 13:20, 25 May 2009 (UTC)Tomwsulcer Tomwsulcer ( talk) 19:04, 25 May 2009 (UTC)Tomwsulcer
Well, Tomwsulcer, the NY Times - and most any other mainstream media, for that matter - is in the hands of masons. In a word: "You're not told what you're not supposed to know." With all due respect to your age and erudition. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 78.83.75.149 ( talk) 13:07, 11 July 2009 (UTC)
Laura289, do you have sources for new information? They would be welcome. ClaudeReigns ( talk) 15:46, 25 November 2008 (UTC)
I've restored the NPOV tag. It seems pretty self-evident why it needs one, but here are the main specific reasons:
KarlM ( talk) 18:29, 25 March 2009 (UTC)
EXACTLY! i tried to get a youtube video or anything similar from Celente from prior 2008 that would actually proof that the guy made accurate predictions prior to events unfolding (e.g. what did he say in 1999 about y2k, prior to the iraq invasion about the outcome and WMD, prior to 2008 about the housing bubble [Peter Schiff predicted that one correctly as early as 2005]) ... For Celente i found not a single interview where he predicted something accurately prior to events unfolding. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 84.191.209.33 ( talk) 18:00, 30 March 2009 (UTC)
check this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3DfjLCcbzw —Preceding
unsigned comment added by
195.158.116.13 (
talk)
01:18, 31 March 2009 (UTC)
I've taken a stab at adding criticism to the article. Obviously, I'd love it if people would expand, edit, discuss, etc. I've left the NPOV tag in place for now, in case my additions haven't actually solved the problem yet. Sonicsuns ( talk) 07:58, 9 April 2009 (UTC)
I put the criticism section back, rearranged a bit to put the more important section (on the supposed correct predictions) first, and trimming the quotes, which are less significant. Please don't mess with it unless you have something constructive to add. KarlM ( talk) 02:26, 8 May 2009 (UTC)
Looking it over, the 'criticism' section is complete rubbish. I'll try and pull up a few articles that I remember that discuss the problems about Celente. There is sufficient criticism out there to go away from the "there's no internet documentation... here are two quotes from Celente though" and move towards something more substantial. The whole article reeks of NPOV. 24.23.104.235 ( talk) 05:04, 10 June 2009 (UTC)
Any article without a criticism section is, by definition, inherently biased. Nothing is devoid of some sort of valid criticism, and anyone who suggests otherwise has an agenda. Sadly, this kind of anti-critical process is pandemic on Wikipedia. One would think the fanboys and fangirls would realize that the lack of criticism would send up red flags for any thinking person, but I guess their philosophy is too superficial to think that deeply. Ianbrettcooper ( talk) 13:46, 20 December 2011 (UTC)
The article is much more balanced now, and I don't think it deserves the tag anymore. If anything it's a little heavy on the criticism (in terms of the space it takes up; it's not particularly harsh in a POV way). Unfortunately we still have Laura289 deleting the best-referenced parts of the article. If you want to even it out, present documented predictions that were correct, don't just erase chunks you don't like. KarlM ( talk) 07:12, 11 July 2009 (UTC)
Karl: You have serious problem of interpreting issues and facts the way you want to. We don't need your analysis. You are not a trend forecaster. You are taking things out of context. And I don't need to be told by you what the proper means of anything are. Here's the whole letter. Let the facts speak for themselves rather than your selective and twisted interpretation:
Respecting WP:OWN as I should, I'd just like to say that I created the article simply in an attempt to learn more about someone I kept seeing on the news. I went with as reliable sources as I could find, starting with newspapers of record which are a standard for RS. I attempted to include criticisms--the one I did was rightfully demonstrated not to conform to RS (I thought it a news item when in fact it was merely a blog) so I deleted them myself in response to the comment. However other editors will decide that the tone of the article should proceed, please keep in mind I tried to be exhaustive, using each and every google news sources I could use for free indiscriminately, as well as explicitly attributing Celente's statements about himself per WP:SELFPUB. The result is that the article as it began practically wrote itself, and in no way attempts to be laudatory, merely expository. In view of the lack of criticism in the sources I could find, the article could have been written no other way. I know it is not satisfying for some to hear that.
Lord knows elsewhere I've been accused of writing "hatchet jobs"--but they tend to turn out that way when the subject gets bad press and I find it. See Barrie Leslie Konicov and Naveen Jain as examples of people I personally like whose articles did not reflect it in my writing. I've seen editors likewise try to quash inconvenient positives about the infamous, as well as rush to suppress the dark secrets of their heros, or themselves. Wikipedia aims at Truth but it must get there by way of sourceable noted fact. I'd be happy if someone could follow through on my attempt to include criticism so long as these criticisms also conform to policy. Some directions to explore might include the time Celente spent shuttling between D.C. and Chicago as a consultant for powerful interests of vague alignment, his specific contributions to political figures which are also vague, and his gaffes in prediction where noted by an RS. (e.g.: Enviroman action figures. LOL!) I myself could not find appropriate sources for this information, so the article does not contain them. Thanks everyone for your interest in the article I began. Be sure to drop a line if you would like an opinion. I leave it now to you. ClaudeReigns ( talk) 05:08, 27 July 2009 (UTC)
Wondering if NPOV flag still applies. ClaudeReigns ( talk) 13:43, 1 August 2009 (UTC)
I believe the Celente article is getting much more up to speed, more fact based (with better references) but is still not perfect. The excellent Hullaballoo Wolfowitz thinks "original research" may still linger in it. But sharp editors like the excellent Tabercil and the excellent Dismas are contributing. Tomwsulcer ( talk) 13:26, 5 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
I agree with the excellent Dismas about the word "crisis" not refering to anything. I think the opening paragraph needs to be tightened somewhat; and the first section needs to be more NPOV (if anything it somewhat tilts against Celente -- what do people think about this?). Tomwsulcer ( talk) 13:45, 5 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
I've looked over changes made to the Celente article. Partisans who are pro-Celente and, in my view, anti-facts, have reverted many of the changes made. There have been statements made without references, claiming that Celente successfully predicted certain events before they happened. These statements REQUIRE REFERENCES. In the case of claiming that Celente made a "successful prediction" it requires solid proof -- that he made the prediction, and then later that it happened. I have searched hard to find instances in which Celente was on record, in a reputable publication with a DATE, of making a specific prediction that Event X would happen at Such-and-such time. And then seeing that event happen. I have found no instances of this at all. What I have found is that Celente is chronically gloomy as a predictor of the overall economy, but milder about business forecasts. Please understand -- Wikipedia is NOT the place to advance a pro-Celente agenda. It's a place for facts, Please SUPPORT YOUR STATEMENTS WITH FACTS FROM REPUTABLE SOURCES. Wikipedia is not the place to advance your particular agenda. Tomwsulcer ( talk) 04:52, 7 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
Generally I think we should follow the Wikipedia policy of sticking to solid facts from reputable sources. Since this is an article about Gerald Celente, it's hard for me to see own publication "Trends Journal" as being a solid source (this is a stretch for me; if you feel you have a good case about this, let me know; make your case). If somebody wants to make a statement like a person successfully predicted event X, then I want to see a statement in a reputable source (NY Times, Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Chronicle, New Yorker, Time magazine, and many others, you know the Wikipedia policy) with a DATE, BEFORE THE EVENT HAPPENED, saying specifically that "Event X is going to happen at such and such a time, or within such and such a time frame". Then, I want to see evidence of the event happening. It doesn't count if a person is ALWAYS making negative predictions because sooner or later some of these are bound to come true -- in that case, we might say Gerald Celente predicted X, but he's always been predicting X, and X finally happened, and that really means nothing. Support your statements. Follow Wikipedia policy. If Celente did make them and you can PROVE it, I'll support you. I've spent much time looking over the record -- I've done extensive searching -- and I haven't found what I consider to be solid evidence that he successfully predicted, beforehand, the stock market crash of 87 or the Asian financial crisis of 1997. But you need to SUPPORT YOUR STATEMENTS otherwise I'll tag them, flag them, and delete them. Tomwsulcer ( talk) 05:46, 7 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
YouTube as a source I feel is problematic; what is the Wikipedia policy here? The videos are easy to manipulate, distort. Perhaps a YouTube video can be used to support a more reliable source -- such as a CNN transcript. Editors who want to use YouTube videos as a primary, stand-alone source -- please show some justification that this is official Wikipedia policy, or if there's no official policy, why it's sensible? Tomwsulcer ( talk) 12:16, 7 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
About Celente predictions before the 1987 crash -- is there a physical copy of the WSJ article in which Celente made this prediction which I can see? Or can somebody please take a fairly good picture of this specific article (with date plainly evident please), upload it to Wikimedia Commons, and we can include it in the article or use it as a source of some kind? Or is there some other way to verify the transcript -- where did it come from? How can I get a copy? But a source in 1998 saying Celente in 1985 predicted a crash in 1987 won't wash with me that he "successfully predicted" the 1987 crash; what we CAN say is that Celente SAID he successfully predicted the crash (because this is what the newspaper quotes say), but it was after the fact. Tomwsulcer ( talk) 12:16, 7 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
TOMSULCER: Stop adding that prediction of Stock Market Crash and Asian currency crisis need fact references. THE FACTS ARE EXCERPTED FROM WALL STREET JOURNAL ARTICLE AND CELENTE'S BOOK. Go to Lexis-Nexis and see it for yourself if you must. But do not discount what I've written just because YOU CAN'T FIND IT BY DOING A SIMPLE WEB SEARCH.
Laura289 (
talk)
19:06, 7 August 2009 (UTC)
Reminder what it says at the top of this Discussion page: "This article must adhere to the policy on biographies of living persons. Controversial material about living persons that is unsourced or poorly sourced must be removed immediately, especially if potentially libellous. If such material is repeatedly inserted or if there are other concerns relative to this policy, report it on the living persons biographies noticeboard." (boldface added by me for emphasis) Tomwsulcer ( talk) 12:33, 7 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
I think that any edits made by this user should be held up to the highest degree of scrutiny. Mrfridays ( talk) 16:34, 13 August 2009 (UTC)
"Self-published or questionable sources may be used as sources of information about themselves, especially in articles about themselves, without the requirement that they be published experts in the field, so long as:
Trends Journal, therefore, may be used in the article "Gerald Celente" specifically for elsewhere-noted assertions that date and verify Celente's predictions. Trends Journal may not be used to assert notability for a prediction, or we would use it entire--and the inclusion of only predictions noted in RS prevents use of the source in a dubious way. The "claims about third parties" means that we don't make direct assertions about the Jews in the article about Adolf Hitler just because Hitler said so--and that's the founding principle and example of why those clauses are there. Therefore in an article about someone who's bread and butter is prediction about third parties, we can use the Primary Source as a direct form of verificaton of the Secondary Source. It does not give us leeway to evaluate the prediction. That falls to the Secondary Source. Celente's self-published material cannot be used to rate him as a predictor. That falls to Secondary Sources. ClaudeReigns ( talk) 09:14, 14 August 2009 (UTC)
Are you guys crazy? You're saying that information that has been WRITTEN, DATED, PRINTED, AND GLOBALLY DISTRIBUTED CANNOT BE USED AS A SOURCE? Says who? Says you? Who are you? The information in Gerald Celente's "Trends Journal" publications PROVES that he made countless forecasts well before they happened. And because I work for him is a "conflict of interests"? All that means in this instance is I have access to his entire body of work. You're trying to discredit him; I'm providing the documented proof. That's all I'm trying to do here. Why are you being so difficult? I'm providing the proof; you're continuing to try to discount it. Obviously you have an agenda, because any person of sound mind would not dispute the facts staring them in the face. Laura289 ( talk) 13:17, 14 August 2009 (UTC)
Tomwsulcer: Who are you to impugn Gerald Celente's integrity and to take it upon yourself to question the authenticity and validity of the articles posted? All are there on public record. They are there for any intelligent and diligent researcher to access. In effect, you are calling Mr. Celente and the Trends Research Institute liars and frauds. Should your accusations continue and you persist in attacking the work of the Trends Research Institute and Mr. Celente personally by altering factual material, legal action will be taken. You are hereby put on notice to immediately cease and desist. Laura289 ( talk) 17:26, 14 August 2009 (UTC)
^ if that comment by laura289 isn't the sign of a charlatan at work i don't know what is. celente is a blatant fraud. and laura is a cowardly bitch- anonymous
I started trying to clean this up but I frankly don't have the energy to pick through and keep the primary sources that are ok, rewrite the advertising copy, cut out all the BS... sheesh. Have fun guys! <>Multi-Xfer<> ( talk) 07:21, 15 August 2009 (UTC)
Proposed article follows: Tomwsulcer ( talk) 13:49, 15 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
Gerald Celente (born November 29, 1946) is a United States trend forecaster [1] [2] business consultant, [3] [4] author, [1] founder of The Trends Research Institute which publishes Trends Journal [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] and political forecaster. [11] Celente has made pessimistic predictions such as recessions, depressions, terrorism, stock market crashes, war, fascism, food riots, and tax revolts, and he has been on radio, television, and in newspapers making these predictions. [3] [12] [13] [14] [15] [8] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23]
References
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It's all facts. I think everybody (even the pro-Celente partisans) will agree with the above statements. They're well referenced. I recommend ANOTHER EDITOR paste this in the Celente article. I dug out many of the references myself earlier (although I haven't checked over every one and some may have been modified). Tomwsulcer ( talk) 13:49, 15 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
If people won't be reasonable about finding some kind of compromise, then let's delete this article. It makes Wikipedia look bad. It's advertising for Celente. It undermines all the hard work and toil that editors do (voluntarily, without pay) trying to make this encyclopedia work. Tomwsulcer ( talk) 00:55, 16 August 2009 (UTC)tomwsulcer
Who anointed Tom W Sulcer to edit my 30 year career of accomplishments as he sees fit ... down to two line of his choice? Over the course of many months many individuals contributed their time to build my profile. Indeed, it was first created without my knowledge or influence by the Wikipedia community. And now, in one fell swoop, his highness, Mr. Sulcer has decreed he knows best for everyone.
To say, for example that the Wall Street Journal is not a proper source to confirm my forecast of the 1987 stock market crashbecause a copy of the page has been scanned for review, is proof of his attempts to use any excuse to question my integrity. He further defames my character by claiming that my hundreds of media interviews featured on YouTube are not credible sources, because they could be manipulated. Manipulated by whom? Me? To credit myself with predictions I never made? Again, he is accusing me of being a fraud.
Tom Sulcer equates his failure to promote his self-published book on Wikipedia as a relevant example as to why The Trends Research Institute cannot reference from our internationally distributed Trends Journal (publishing since 1991). What twisted logic. That is like claiming that the New England Journal of Medicine cannot quote from its journal to prove what they had written in the past.
All forecasts listed were documented and appropriately referrenced. Since Sulcer writes in terms of people being "Pro Celente" and his continuing defamation of my character, he is clearly an anti-Celente malcontent and should be banned from Wikepidia for egregious and malicious attempts to discredit me and for his disservice to the Wikipedia community.
Gerald Celente Gcelente ( talk) 13:17, 16 August 2009 (UTC)
I have no irons in this fire at all. I came here in response to a NPOVN request.
The lead of this article was ridiculous, While I admit that this person is famous for predicted financial and political situations, the points included in the lead were so specific as to be absurd. A WP:LEAD is supposed to be essentially a summary. A person coming here knowing nothing of this person doesn't want to read about what the Washington Times thought of this person or which of the millions of possible predictions this person could have possibly made were made. A person coming here just wants to know who this person is. To that end, I removed specific predictions to the section of the article that talks about specific predictions and added a phrase to describe this person as a prognosticator.
It's fairly plain that predictors in financial and political areas have a spotty track-record, regardless of who they are. Wikipedia should tow that mainstream line. WP:NPOV demands we take no stance as to whether or not this particular prognosticator can actually predict with accuracy. Please do not write prose to either effect.
ScienceApologist ( talk) 03:41, 19 August 2009 (UTC)
Gerald Celente is being quoted repeatedly all over the place, particularly by conservative commentators critical of current federal policies. Given this fact, would it not be appropriate to prepare a linked Wikiquote page to begin gathering his source-able quotations for reference? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.251.130.120 ( talk) 09:09, 20 August 2009 (UTC)
How can sources be checked and documents authenticated?
I cannot see why Trends Journal previous articles cannot be used as reference for as long as people know where the source comes from. This is a debate about whether predictions were made and nothing else (no one in this discussion is disputing where Celente was born and in this instance you would need independent sources to assert that, not sources from Celente). So any publications showing those predictions should be admissible regardless of where they come from. It's about the FACT that someone made a prediction somewhere, not about whether he is right or not (this becomes sufficiently obvious with time, there is no need to do anything about it). It's purely about the existance of that prediction and a (genuine) Trends Journal source has as much credit as any other source. The reference to Hitler is plainly wrong. It is perfectly fine to use sources from Mein Kampf if one is merely trying to document what Hitler stood for and this has nothing to do with whether you agree with him or not. It's about the fact that someone said something, not about proving or disproving any theory.
What is objective remains objective even if it comes from a biased source. An islamic terrorist website stating that the attacks on the WTC happenned on September 11. 2001 is factually correct about the date the events took place. I may understand one's reluctance to use such sources and if other sources are available, it would be preferable to use those. In this case no other sources seem readily available so we probably have to make do with what we have since, again, it deals with the reporting of FACTS and nothing else.
I agree that we cannot take Celente's word for it, and that comes from someone who agrees with a lot of what he says. But if I was in his shoes, I wouldn't want people to take the leap of faith but rather have others vindicate my position, prove my claims etc...
Note: Of course one would need to authenticate the Trends Journal source which may be difficult. Which leads me to that question: does wikipedia have a method for authenticating documents?
Three bet shove ( talk) 16:55, 14 July 2010 (UTC)
Where did the section on criticism of Celente go? It has become an article of faith among Celente-believers that he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, 1987 stock market crash, 1997 Asian currency crash and all these other things, but there has never been evidence of that. (Oran indication of precisely what he predicted and what transpired. For someone in his line of work, if he gets to set the record, there is an intense incentive for him to hype the degree to which he was correct.) There should be a degree of fair skepticism of this guy.—Preceding unsigned comment added by 173.60.203.172 ( talk) 15:02, 22 August 2010 (UTC)
SOURCE 1: http://www.edrants.com/gerald-celente-futurist-fraud/
SOURCE 2: http://louminatti.blogspot.com/2008/11/gerald-celente-is-full-of-crap.html
SOURCE 3: http://blogs.computerworld.com/fox_news_obama_gloom —Preceding unsigned comment added by 173.60.203.172 ( talk) 15:20, 22 August 2010 (UTC)
I actually came to this wiki looking for criticisms, I must say the articles listed here are very weak. Some predictions they've mocked have since come true (resurgence in gardening), and one of the blogs only criticizes him for stating the obvious, such has people have more time after retirement. That said, these are blogs which seem to have more concern with the political party he's criticizing than anything else.
If someone does have a comprehensive and legitimate list of criticisms I'd love to see them added. Until then, it's best that these three blogs are left out. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 214.27.58.130 ( talk) 05:32, 13 November 2010 (UTC)
Hi guys,
I've recently taken an interest in Celente and am compiling his predictions in a new section. Any suggestions you have, especially where it comes to citation format, will be appreciated. If this section gets too large, I'll create a new Wikipedia page for them and will just leave an abbreviated summary of his predictions on this entry. I promise everything I write will be verifiable and as neutrally worded as possible. Thanks. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Egermino ( talk • contribs) 17:43, 22 August 2010 (UTC)
The predictions section doesn't contain any. Maybe "observations" would be a better word. For example, "Developers have begun rehabbing some of the ghost malls for more productive uses" is not a prediction. Neither is "bloggers and independent journalists wield as much influence on voters as mainstream media outlets". In fact, I don't think the section contains even a single prediction. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 186.86.139.32 ( talk) 19:43, 16 January 2013 (UTC)
I deleted the section about predicting the 1987 stock market crash. A "claim" by a source does not validate a prediction. I looked at the sources and none of them showed that he predicted the 1987 crash. Additionally this article reads like an advertisement for Gerald Celente. It appears all he does is make broad and vague claims about the future, which are mostly wrong. TimL ( talk) 03:19, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
Agreed, I also take issue with the apparent editing having taken place with the 2009-2011 predictions. Rather than including the full text of these predictions, as is done with the 2012 section, only a vague sentence is offered in each that seem to be construed as verification to the event they describe. Selecting loosely interpreted events from larger predictions, having happened or not, isn't a proper way to document Gerald Celente, or any futurist for that matter. I'd recommend this page be limited to biography only, since apparent bias and promotion to the benefit of Gerald Celente is preventing neutrality. — Preceding unsigned comment added by DarkWorld81 ( talk • contribs) 05:25, 1 February 2012 (UTC)
It would be a lot easier to judge the validity of Celente's predictions if we had some idea of how he makes these predicitons. For instance, are they the outcome of some sort of worldwide socioeconomic model, or is he just reading tea leaves? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 192.12.184.6 ( talk) 17:42, 9 August 2011 (UTC)
I think so many people on this talk page got him wrong: he just reads the newspapers every day and uses his intuition and experience to predict trends. He doesn't come off as a tea leaf reader and doesn't write ambiguous poetry like Nostradamus. He talks about trends. He's not a magician. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.17.186.130 ( talk) 23:46, 12 March 2012 (UTC)
Celente IIRC has written a book describing his method and talked about them in at least one interview which I recall. It is somewhat akin to 'reading the newspaper everyday and using intuition' but he does state he has a specific criteria as to which articles deserve note: if they have not only political and economic but also social repercussions. Someone correct me if I have misstated or misrepresented. 107.2.143.208 ( talk) 09:29, 10 September 2012 (UTC)
The article is, as it stands, heavily biased. There is no criticial evaluations of the claims, nor any proper sources. As the article stands right now, only the lead section is worth anything, and the rest ought to be deleted. Kristjan Wager ( talk) 18:57, 23 December 2011 (UTC)
Took out the claim that he predicted certain events due to this source; there is no available evidence of Celente predicting what was claimed of the source, unless someone can provide a non-broken link or reliable other source. I'm not sure how to delete sources from the reference list, so hopefully can show me how to get rid of broken links? Gracias! Spotle99 ( talk) 12:57, 12 February 2012 (UTC)
Is there a minor syntax error somewhere which makes many references appear in-text or did the person adding these references simply not make format them properly? - Tournesol ( talk) 11:22, 11 May 2012 (UTC)
I started this article a long time ago to try to get a handle on what I was seeing on T.V. and on the radio and invite collaboration from the community to discover exactly what was true about a figure whom I found to be notable. I am open to any conclusions one way or the other. I was equally pleased with sourcing which demonstrated Mr. Celente's hits (gold spike, housing bubble bursting) as well as his misses (Enviroman action figure). While I understand that it is a distinct possibility that prognosticators in general may engage in the practice of postdiction, and that may render some sources unfit for certain statements withn the article, a couple of double-standards can easily be observed. It seems like someone who is in the business of making predictions has a hard time getting recognition for the notability of those predictions while a guy like the one who played Trapper John, M.D. can go on the air and tell everyone to buy Goldman-Sachs just before they crash because he's a recognizable figure and getting paid both ways to do so - without a ding to his reputation. We should be able to verifiably track what prognosticators have said and continue to say. A second double-standard relates to articles about religion. Articles about religious figures can go on and on and on about how they self-describe. And to a point, they should. We need to know what people have to say about themselves. It's a piece in the puzzle of good biography. Not that those statements shouldn't be examined with a critical eye and phrased in such a way that we take those statements as fact at face value. But if I want to review what is known about Gerald Celente in a comprehensive way, I am not going to use this article as it stands. It's far too scant. If I got any use here, I'd refer to previous versions. What I was going for was The Ultimate Dossier on a particular futurist. What we've got now IMO is the shambles of a war between a two-headed hydra with heads named Snark and Peacock.
I know, I know. I don't own the article. That's why I'm not active in editing it. Maybe I went about this the wrong way. Maybe the best way to find out about the subject is to do a wikinews article? I've never done that before. If I were ever to get involved in this again, it'd have to be with some assurance that we were going to satisfy some very valid verifiability concerns of skeptics but also positively engage editors close to the subject to encourage rational discussion. Can we find a library which has back copies of Trends Journal? Are transcripts of radio shows available from a neutral source? Can we set a guidleine for what constitutes a verifiably accurate prediction without requiring that the NYT head the front page with "HE DID IT!"? The way that we approach the article ought to inform all such articles. The overall goal being, it is advantageous for the human race to be able objectively to evaluate all notable prognosticators and have some means not only to acknowledge success when the future is predicted but also beware when a future occurance is predicted and does not come to pass. Wikipedia once stated as its goal the desire to document the sum of all human knowledge. Was that just a non-cognitive utterance? Or do we mean it? And is there some better way of accomplishing my original aims? All I can do here is marvel at how utterly I failed to do so. 107.2.143.208 ( talk) 10:57, 10 September 2012 (UTC)
We need to look more closely at what the article states is a prediction. I think it will be helpful to use general observations about prognostication from the article Earthquake prediction.
With such a constant drumbeat of earthquakes various kinds of chicanery can be used to deceptively claim "predictions" that appear more successful than is truly the case.[6] E.g., predictions can be made that leave one or more parameters of location, time, and magnitude unspecified. These are subsequently adjusted to include what ever earthquakes as do occur. These would more properly be called "postdictions". Alternately, "pandictions" can be made, with such broad parameters as will most likely match some earthquake, some time, some where. These are indeed predictions, but trivial, meaningless for any purpose of fore-telling, and quite useless for making timely preparations for "the next big one". Or multiple predictions — "multidictions" — can be made, each of which, alone, seems statistically unlikely. "Success" derives from revealing, after the event, only those that prove successful.
===Predictions===
2009
"The Crash of '09 was as dramatic as the crash of '29. The New Depression had begun." (Trends Journal, Summer 2008, pg. 12) non-primary source needed
2010
Some areas of the U.S. are experiencing resurgences in real estate values due to highly localized factors, and some investors profit from this. However, the rises will almost all stop and reverse with time, and the overall national trend in real estate values is downward. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 8) non-primary source needed
Ghost malls have become a common sight across America. Especially hard-hit are big chain stores (Sears, Home Depot, etc.). (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 8) non-primary source needed2011
Developers have begun rehabbing some of the ghost malls for more productive uses. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9) non-primary source needed
2012
The economic policies of the U.S. government over the past few years have failed to fix America's fundamental problems and have merely papered over them and in fact made them worse. By 2012, the "American Empire" is collapsing. In the U.S., basic staple goods like quality food and water are too expensive for most people to afford,(T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) non-primary source needed and "food riots" happen across the country (T.J. Summer 09, pg.1). Major American cities look like disaster zones, and mass homelessness exists across the country. Crime is rampant, with much of it being directed at the rich. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) non-primary source needed Kidnappings and ransomings of rich people are on the rise. Average people fed up with big government, high taxes and out-of-control spending join tax revolts. (T.J. Summer 09, pg. 1) non-primary source needed The world is also experiencing major environmental problems and "the blackest of plagues." The global financial system has also "melted down" and the situation is very bad outside the U.S.(T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) non-primary source needed The advanced industrial economies collapse first, and their sagging consumer spending drags down the export-based economies of emerging economies next.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 2) non-primary source needed The economy is as bad as it was during the Great Depression in many ways. In spite of all this, the U.S. government, power elites, and mainstream media continue to insist that the fundamentals of the world economy are sound, and that official policies can lead to a recovery. A growing number of average people, however, doubt this. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 1) non-primary source needed
While the Mayan and Hopi prophecies of global destruction do not come to pass, 2012 is indeed a watershed year that sees the death of an ailing and unsustainable global economic system and lifestyle and its replacement with something better. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 2) non-primary source needed
By 2012, Obama is viewed by most as a stale president who sold himself as a fresh, visionary candidate in 2008 and instead proved to be a servant of the big corporations and the military-industrial complex like his predecessors.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 5) not specific enough to verify His economic policies only delayed disaster and in fact have made the situation worse: Expansionary monetary policy and the various government bailouts and stimulus programs create a "Bailout Bubble" that invariably bursts in a cataclysm for the U.S. and world economy.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 11) non-primary source needed Obama blames other factors for this and might have even tried to start a war by 2012 to distract attention from the domestic misery.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 12) not specific enough to verify Obama's foreign policy has also failed to accomplish anything significant on the world stage, and Pakistan is a mess and the Afghan war continues to drag on without hope of conclusion.(T.J. Summer 09, pg. 12) non-primary source needed
In the 2012 U.S. elections, online news sites, bloggers and independent journalists wield as much influence on voters as mainstream media outlets (TV, cable, magazines, newspapers) for the first time. This breaks the corporate and moneyed stranglehold on American politics and allows a third party to attain nation-level recognition. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 5) non-primary source needed
Broad future trends
Americans will adapt to lower standards of living and will travel less, both on a daily basis and for vacations. Higher fuel costs, advances in telecommuting and an aging American population will push many more people to work from home or close to home. Walking-distance communities will be constructed and will become popular. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 7) non-primary source needed
Geographically isolated resort destinations like Las Vegas will wither due to higher fuel costs, lower American incomes and increased overseas competition while vacation spots closer to population centers will revive. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9) non-primary source needed
Government-run lotteries, on the other hand, will thrive. (T.J. Summer 08, pg. 9) non-primary source needed
In America and to a lesser extent overseas, consumer spending habits will be motivated out of fear and escapism. Businesses that capitalize upon this will succeed. (T.J. Summer 09, pg. 24) non-primary source needed
My thoughts:
For contrast, here is how Earthquake prediction handles individual predictions:
===1973: Blue Mountain Lake, USA===
Result:
![]()
A team studying earthquake activity at Blue Mountain Lake (BML), New York, made a prediction on August 1, 1973, that "an earthquake of magnitude 2.5—3 would occur in a few days." And: "At 2310 UT on August 3, 1973, a magnitude 2.6 earthquake occurred at BML". [1] According to the authors, this is the first time the approximate time, place, and size of an earthquake were successfully predicted in the United States. [2]
It has been suggested that the pattern they observed may have been a statistical fluke, that just happened to get out in front of a chance earthquake. [3] It seems significant that there has never been a second prediction from Blue Mountain Lake; this prediction now appears to be largely discounted. [4]
Hopefully, this helps establish the bar for notability and verifiability of predictions. This is not to say that reviews must come from an Ivy League university, nor a global body concerned with the body of research. I think in general, when a third-party source we can check on points out a Celente prediction before it is due to occur, and the prediction is evaluated by a credible third-party after the fact, it warrants an inclusion in the article. How does this standard for inclusion work for everyone? ClaudeReigns ( talk) 04:58, 19 November 2012 (UTC)
References
Do we really need this section? Is there any notable source claiming that these predictions were remarkable or that they had a notable impact on anything? Could we quote the source that cares about these predictions? I hardly believe that predicting 2009 would be another bad year was all that striking, given that the prediction occurred after the 2008 crash. -- Bertrc ( talk) 18:25, 30 January 2014 (UTC)
https://en.wikipedia.org/?diff=617080938&oldid=615982343
That edit came from the House of Representatives, we can all agree to rollback that change, right? if nothing else, it's nothing more than opinion, which isn't good content for an encyclopedia.
Proof: https://twitter.com/congressedits/status/489099893836107777
Bumblebritches57 ( talk) 18:50, 15 July 2014 (UTC)
The comment(s) below were originally left at Talk:Gerald Celente/Comments, and are posted here for posterity. Following several discussions in past years, these subpages are now deprecated. The comments may be irrelevant or outdated; if so, please feel free to remove this section.
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I am highly dubious that Gerald Celente has a proven track record regarding past predictions. I see little indication of verifiable sources. I suggest Wikipedians check out the supposed claims more thoroughly. I don't understand why I haven't heard of Gerald Celente until only recently IF it's true that all of his past predictions bore fruit. Why isn't there coverage from the Wall Street Journal? The Economist? There is one article from The New York Times but it was only a character piece or human interest story which basically described Mr. Celente as a director of a supposed Trends Institute but it didn't confirm any of Mr. Celente's supposed past predictions. Are there any corporate sources or clients which can vouchsafe for Mr. Celente's reputation? Wikipedia's reputation is on the line here. Get this right.
Tomwsulcer (
talk)
13:28, 25 May 2009 (UTC)Tomwsulcer
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Guy is notable in that on very slow news days, ANY reporter, from any two-bit publication or penny shopper or "news" web site, can call him directly and he'll say whatever the reporter suggests would fit whatever story......It's quite convenient, when filling quotas. Great guy in that respect......
Thing is, nobody who isn't insane would actually pay for his "expert forecasts." Is a mystery how he survives....
This isn't apparent from the Wikipedia "article" on the guy. (notes below aren't mine.....seems to be somebody's formatting error)
Badiacrushed ( talk) 16:19, 13 December 2017 (UTC)