SpaceX Mars colonization program (also referred to as Occupy Mars colloquially amongst SpaceX's fans) is an ambition of the company
SpaceX and particularly of its founder
Elon Musk to
colonize Mars. The main element of this is the plan to establish a self-sustained large scale settlement on Mars and enable
self-determination and
direct democracy on Mars.[1] Musk believes the colonization of Mars is important for the
long-term survival and the collective well-being of the human species.[2]
These plans for
colonization have garnered both praise and criticism, being supported as a result of public excitement for further human involvement beyond Earth and a desire to prefer human longevity, and being questioned for its existential perspective, execution, livability and legality.[1][3]
History
Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has engaged in
space advocacy relating to the colonization of Mars since at least 2001 at the
Mars Society.[4]: 30–31
As early as 2007, Elon Musk publicly stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[5]
In 2011, SpaceX planned on proposing Red Dragon for the Discovery Mission #13, which would launch in 2022,[9][10][11] but it was not submitted. It was then proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to achieve a
Mars sample return by 2021. In the concept, the Red Dragon capsule would be equipped with the system needed to return samples gathered on Mars. NASA did not fund this concept.
In 2016, SpaceX planned on launching two Red Dragon vehicles[12] in 2018,[13][14] with NASA providing technical support instead of funding.[15] However, in 2017, Red Dragon was cancelled, in favor of the much larger
Starship spacecraft.[16]
Starship
The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016
International Astronautical Congress alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the
Interplanetary Transport System. Since then, the launch vehicle was renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since.
The development program reached multiple milestones in 2024 such as on its
third test flight, it reached its desired trajectory for the first time and on its
fourth flight test, both stages of the vehicle achieved controlled splashdown after launch for the first time. The company has given many estimates of dates of the first human landing on Mars; the most recent discussion of which occurred during a company all hands meeting in April 2024.[17]
SpaceX has been setting up since 2014 a facility called Starbase and more recently a
factory called Starfactory on the previously populated and wildlife area
Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the
Rio Grande delta at the
Gulf of Mexico,[18] partly justified by SpaceX with its colonial perspective,[19] to launch and build an in development fully
reusablesuper heavy-lift launch vehicle with the name Starship. Aiming with its rusability to drastically reduce launch costs and scaled construction and swift maintenance between flights,[20]: 2 this has been the basis for SpaceX to advance its Mars ambitions and when operational will allow it to provide the necessary transportation capabilities for its colonial goals. The reusability and its resulting reduced launch costs is expected to expand space access to more payloads and entities.[21]
Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2–3 years and dropping with time.[22] Starfactory is at the same time planned to produce at peak one Starship per day.[23]
Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively inexpensive, produces a low amount of
soot as compared to other hydrocarbons,[27] and can be
created on Mars from
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and hydrogen via the
Sabatier reaction.[28] The engine family uses a new
alloy for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain 300 bar (4,400 psi) of pressure, the highest of all current engines.[27] In the future, it may be mass-produced[27] and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per
kilonewton.[29]
First missions
Musk has made statements on several occasions about aspirational dates for Starship's earliest possible Mars landing,[30] including in 2022, that a mission to Mars could be no earlier than 2029.[31]
SpaceX has stated on several occasions aspirational plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient
colony.[33][34]
Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite
equipment,
habitats and supplies.[35] Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for crop growth.[36][37]
Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to
process resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys,[38] and use similar technologies on Earth to create
carbon-neutral propellant.[39]
Populating
The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and launch cost is reduced, populating can begin.
After the first few windows of crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the number of people who are sent to Mars could be ramped up rapidly.
A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX.[42][43][44]
For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050.[45]
Musk has stated in 2024 that
in-situ resource utilization will be critical for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX plans to begin its efforts in advancing that field in "seven to nine years".[46] Current theories for in-situ resource utilization involve harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its raw components. This will involve using the O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to Nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for breathing air within habitats.[47]
The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a
Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months.[48] Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time,[44] averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine
synodic periods occurring between 2024 and 2041).[49]
Reception and feasibility
Mars colonization has gained increased interest, both supportive and critical, since the technical achievements of SpaceX's and Elon Musk's rise of popularity in the 2010s, and more so in the 2020s.
Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advancements that could be developed on Mars will come to benefit the whole of Earth.[51]
Criticism
Some people object to the concept of colonizing Mars, believing the planet's lack of both breathable air and protective
magnetosphere to be problems, and that pressurized habitats would be an unacceptable solution.[52]
SpaceX's program to colonize Mars has been criticized as far-fetched, because of uncertainties regarding its financing[6] and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. As of July 2019, SpaceX has not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, which are essential for space colonization.[53]
George Dvorsky writing for Gizmodo characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable" and "pure delusion".[54] Mars colonization has been called a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord
Martin Rees, a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the
Astronomer Royal of the
United Kingdom.[55] A common sentiment among those opposed to expanding the scope of human civilization to Mars is that humans should solve all the problems on Earth before advancing to
extraplanetary colonization.[56]
Law
SpaceX intends to base the colony governing laws on
self-determination and
direct democracy, led by the citizens of the Martian colony. Somewhat contrary to SpaceX's claims, international
space law does not see Mars as free to be governed by residing colonists, instead giving it a similar status to
international waters.[57][1][58]
SpaceX's terms and services agreement for individual users of its
Starlink platform includes the following: "the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities".[59] Starlink has been used extensively by individuals users, Ukrainian forces in the
Russo-Ukrainian War, and people throughout rural parts of the world. This signifies that a growing population of individuals and governments is recognizing SpaceX's perspective on enabling Mars to be a free planet.[60][61]
Trivia
It has been pointed out that there is coincidentally a book about Mars colonization called Project Mars: A Technical Tale, written by the lead engineer of the
V-2 rocket, the first rocket to surpass the
Karman Line and go to space, and of the
Saturn V, the primary vehicle used in the
Apollo program and the first vehicle to ever send humans to the Moon,
Wernher von Braun. He envisioned a Mars colony with a publicly elected leader called the
"Elon", elected in five year intervals.[62]
^
Gwynne Shotwell (March 21, 2014).
Broadcast 2212: Special Edition, interview with Gwynne Shotwell (audio file). The Space Show. Event occurs at 29:45–30:40. 2212. Archived from
the original(mp3) on March 22, 2014. Retrieved March 22, 2014. would have to throw a bunch of stuff before you start putting people there. ... It is a transportation system between Earth and Mars.
^Klass, Morton (2000). "Recruiting new "huddled masses" and "wretched refuse": a prolegomenon to the human colonization of space". Futures. 32 (8). Elsevier BV: 739–748.
doi:
10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00024-0.
ISSN0016-3287.