The following is the pre-election
pendulum for the
2023 New South Wales state election. It is based on notional margins calculated by the
ABC's
Antony Green.[1] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. However, the current member for Holsworthy
Melanie Gibbons will move to contest the seat of Kiama.[2] By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.
^While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the
2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the
Nationals.
^While the redistributed two-party-preferred margin based on 2019 results would be Liberal 20.7%, the result of the
2022 by-election conducted in the old boundaries was a margin of 3.3% for the
Liberals versus independent Larissa Penn.
^The new Castle Hill largely replaces Elliott's seat of Baulkham Hills. A new seat named Kellyville has been created to replace the seat that formerly held the name of Castle Hill.
^Kellyville largely replaces Williams's seat of Castle Hill. A different seat named Castle Hill has been created to replace Baulkham Hills.
^The margin used in the pendulum is Labor’s winning margin from the
February 2022 by-election, which the
Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
^Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the
2022 by-election after the resignation of
Jodi McKay.
^While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the
2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the
Labor Party.
^Bankstown largely replaces Dib's seat of
Lakemba. The seat that formerly held the name of Bankstown was abolished.