Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by
Wolters Kluwer collecting
macroeconomic forecasts related to the
economy of the United States.[1] The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity.[1] It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest rates.[1]
History
Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts started in 1976.[1]
Variables reported
The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States:[1]
Real GDP
GDP price index
Nominal GDP
Consumer price index
Industrial production
Real disposable personal income
Real personal consumption expenditures
Real non-residential fixed investment
Pre-tax corporate profits
3-month Treasury bill rate
10-year Treasury note yield
Unemployment rate
Total housing starts
Auto and light truck sales
Real Net exports
Reception
Academic reception
Many papers in the academic literature on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts have used the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for a data set of forecasts whose accuracy is to be evaluated.[2][3] A paper by Laster, Bennett, and Geoum (1999) made a theoretical argument for how rational forecasters with identical information and incentives may still come up with divergent forecasts to maximize their probability of winning, and used the Blue chip Economic Indicators data to provide evidence supportive of their model. The paper noted: "The publisher of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a monthly newsletter compiling dozens of professional economic forecasts, holds an annual dinner at which the most accurate forecaster for the previous year is honored. The winning forecaster is also identified in later issues of the newsletter."[4]
The results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators have also been used to inform discussion in the financial press and blogs, including Forbes and Barron's.[6][7][8]
In March 2009, PolitiFact reported that a controversial statement made by
Christina Romer based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators data had correctly cited the Blue Chip Economic Indicators.[9]