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49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 New Brunswick general election is scheduled to be held on or before October 21, 2024, according to the Legislative Assembly Act of 2017 which states that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October. [3] It will be held to select 49 members of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick of the 61st New Brunswick legislature.
On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives. Austin said that the result of the 2020 provincial election, when the party lost one of its three seats, had prompted him to undertake some “soul-searching”, but that he believed he had changed politics in New Brunswick. [4] Both Austin and Conroy stated that they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government. [5]
Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs expressed excitement about his party's new MLAs, but reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue. The acceptance of MLAs who had expressed anti-bilingual opinions was criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick, an organization promoting the rights of francophones in the province, when their president Alexandre Cédric Doucet said that he was happy to see the Alliance dissolve, but that it was "a sad day" for the Progressive Conservatives. [5]
The Chief Electoral Officer of New Brunswick confirmed that the Peoples Alliance of New Brunswick would be deregistered as a provincial party on March 31, 2022. [6] In April 2022, interim leader Rick DeSaulniers and party announced plans to re-register as a party. [7] Elections New Brunswick confirmed the party was re-registered in May 2022. [8]
Affiliation | Assembly members | ||
---|---|---|---|
2020 election results | Current | ||
Progressive Conservative | 27 | 26 | |
Liberal | 17 | 16 | |
Green | 3 | 3 | |
People's Alliance | 2 | 0 | |
Independent | 0 | 1 | |
Vacant | 3 | ||
Total members | 49 | 46 | |
Total seats | 49 | 49 |
Changes in seats held (2020–present) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seat | Before | Change | |||||
Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin | August 17, 2021 | Jake Stewart | █ PC | Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; elected. | June 20, 2022 | Mike Dawson | █ PC |
Miramichi Bay-Neguac | Lisa Harris | █ Liberal | Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; defeated. | Réjean Savoie | █ PC | ||
Fredericton-Grand Lake | March 30, 2022 | Kris Austin | █ People's Allnc. | Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party. | █ PC | ||
Miramichi | Michelle Conroy | █ People's Allnc. | Changed affiliation. | █ PC | |||
Fredericton West-Hanwell | October 16, 2022 | Dominic Cardy | █ PC | Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role. | █ Independent | ||
Dieppe | October 21, 2022 | Roger Melanson | █ Liberal | Resigned to head to the private sector. | April 24, 2023 | Richard Losier | █ Liberal |
Restigouche-Chaleur | November 27, 2022 | Daniel Guitard | █ Liberal | Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected. | Marco LeBlanc | █ Liberal | |
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore | November 27, 2022 | Denis Landry | █ Liberal | Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected. | Susan Holt | █ Liberal | |
Saint John Harbour | February 8, 2024 [9] | Arlene Dunn | █ PC | Resigned. | |||
Portland-Simonds | April 30, 2024 [10] | Trevor Holder | █ PC | Resigned. | |||
Hampton | April 30, 2024 [10] | Gary Crossman | █ PC | Resigned. |
New Brunswick, unlike most provinces, allows political party funding from non-residents. In January 2024, Liberal and Green leaders Holt and Coon both made a promise to forbid New Brunswick political party donations from out-of-province sources in response to Higgs going to Alberta and British Columbia on a fundraising trip for his party. [11]
Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance. The revision has led the government to becoming in legal disputes with its education departments as well as with the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, who filed a lawsuit against the government, citing violations against the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and New Brunswick's human rights and education acts. The issue has been the subject of widespread coverage and dispute, and has been covered by major news publications including The Washington Post, [12] The New York Times, [13] and BBC. [14]
Lindsay Jones of The Globe And Mail called the Policy 713 dispute as having "emerged as perhaps the key issue in the next election." [15]
Healthcare in New Brunswick has been described as being in a "state of chaos," [16] with hospitals throughout the province experiencing an overcapacity of patients, [17] excessively long waiting times, [18] and health workers experiencing burnout. [19] During a February 2023 press conference, Blaine Higgs stated that "if every doctor in our province took two or three more patients a week, we wouldn't have a backlog." [20] In an Angus Reid survey that recorded Canadians' satisfaction with how their province is dealing with healthcare, New Brunswick recorded the largest drop in satisfaction rate compared to rates surveyed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a rate of just 11 percent, compared to a previous rate of 42 percent. [21]
Following overcrowding at the Dr. Everett Chalmers Regional Hospital emergency room at the start of 2024, Green leader David Coon called for "immediate changes" as well as for the government to increase funding. [22]
On May 28, 2024, a CUPE Local 1292-sponsored leaders' debate covering the topic of healthcare was aired on Rogers TV; [23] Blaine Higgs, Susan Holt and David Coon were invited to participate, though Higgs declined to attend. [24]
According to Rob McKee, the Liberal health critic, 160,000 people in New Brunswick, or roughly 20 percent of the population, do not have a family doctor or nurse practitioner as of late May 2024. The numbers were disputed by Bruce Fitch, the Minister of Health. [25]
During the final session of the 60th legislature held on June 7, 2024, Higgs and Holt clashed during question period; one of the topics included the funding spent on travel nurses, amounted to nearly CA$174 million, which was revealed to have been "partly mismanaged" according to a report by the auditor general. [26]
In November 2023, the Progressive Conservatives hired Steve Outhouse as its campaign manager. Outhouse had previously served as chief of staff and as director of communications for federal Conservative cabinet ministers, and served as campaign manager for the re-election of the United Conservative Party in the 2023 Alberta general election. [27] In April 2024, Outhouse was also hired as principal secretary to Premier Blaine Higgs, which is a taxpayer-funded position that will earn up to CA$124,656 during the six-month contract. [28] The contract drew criticism from Green leader David Coon, who estimated the position's pay band as being at a much lower rate of CA$150,000–175,000 annually, [29] as well as from Liberal MLA and former Progressive Conservative Robert Gauvin, who stated that it was "unfair that New Brunswick taxpayers are paying him for that," believing that "this contract should be cut and the money should be reimbursed." [28] Higgs defended the value of the contract by reading extensively from Outhouse's resumé and stating that he comes with, "an extensive degree of credentials and relevant experience to what we experience as a government." [30]
Jacques Poitras of CBC News described the Progressive Conservative campaign under Outhouse's contract as adopting "a more pointed, aggressive style of advertising against the opposition Liberals." The campaign particularly attacked Susan Holt while "trying to link her to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and other policies." Jeff Carr, a Progressive Conservative MLA who previously announced that he would not be seeking candidacy in the election, criticized a post his party made targeting a 2014 quote by Holt regarding "closing some schools in the province." Carr stated that the post omitted important context "for political gain (misleading the electorate)," calling it "disappointing." [28]
Throughout the months leading up to the election, Liberal leader Susan Holt started distancing herself from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amongst attacks from the Progressive Conservatives attempting to link them together throughout the decline in popularity for Trudeau. Holt stated that "the New Brunswick Liberal Party is a separate entity from the federal party the prime minister leads." [31]
In late 2023, Green Party leader David Coon stated that his goal was to "elect as many Green MLAs as possible." Additionally, Coon proposed that he would be open to the idea of collaborating with the Liberals to prevent Higgs from remaining in power if an early election results in him losing seat majority. Coon's negotiation proposal reflected his stance from the 2018 election when he was willing to talk with both parties, prior to the Progressive Conservatives securing the backing from the People's Alliance. [32]
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | PC | Liberal | Green | PA | NDP | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Narrative Research | May 30, 2024 | [p 1] | 34 | 37 | 13 | 1 | 13 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 3 |
Narrative Research | February 22, 2024 | [p 2] | 34 | 40 | 15 | 2 | 8 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 6 |
Narrative Research | November 27, 2023 | [p 3] | 35 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 13 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 6 |
Narrative Research | August 21, 2023 | [p 4] | 36 | 38 | 16 | 1 | 8 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 2 |
Narrative Research | May 17, 2023 | [p 5] | 34 | 34 | 19 | 2 | 10 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone | 0 |
Narrative Research | February 25, 2023 | [p 6] | 37 | 35 | 17 | 2 | 9 | ±4.6 pp | 450 | telephone | 2 |
Leger | December 23, 2022 | [p 7] | 22 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | ±4.4 pp | 500 | online | 18 |
Narrative Research | November 27, 2022 | [p 8] | 30 | 39 | 18 | 2 | 10 | ±4.0 pp | 611 | telephone | 9 |
Narrative Research | August 24, 2022 | [p 9] | 30 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 11 | ±4.2 pp | 525 | telephone | 11 |
Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022) | |||||||||||
Angus Reid | June 13, 2022 | [p 10] | 31 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 13 | ±6.0 pp | 247 | online | 5 |
Narrative Research | May 19, 2022 | [p 11] | 34 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 9 | ±4.0 pp | 607 | telephone | 0 |
Nanos Research | April 11, 2022 | [p 12] | 36.6 | 38.8 | 14.2 | 1.2 | 8.6 | ±4.8 pp | 423 | online/telephone | 2.2 |
Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022) | |||||||||||
Angus Reid | March 15, 2022 | [p 13] | 31 | 32 | 15 | 13 | 9 | ±6.0 pp | 251 | online | 1 |
Narrative Research | February 27, 2022 | [p 14] | 34 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 11 | ±4.2 pp | 545 | telephone | 3 |
Angus Reid | January 10, 2022 | [p 15] | 26 | 37 | 16 | 10 | 8 | ±7.0 pp | 216 | online | 11 |
MQO Research | December 14, 2021 | [p 16] | 29 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 11 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone (rolling) | 7 |
Narrative Research | November 24, 2021 | [p 17] | 28 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 13 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone | 10 |
Stratcom | November 6, 2021 | [p 18] | 20.5 | 39.8 | 17.9 | 12.0 | - | ±2.8 pp | 1,184 | IVR | 19.3 |
Angus Reid | October 3, 2021 | [p 19] | 31 | 31 | 12 | 12 | 13 | ±2.0 pp | 265 | online | 0 |
Narrative Research | August 17, 2021 | [p 20] | 33 | 29 | 22 | 5 | 11 | ±2.0 pp | 604 | telephone | 4 |
Angus Reid | June 7, 2021 | [p 21] | 36 | 31 | 17 | 12 | 4 | ±2.0 pp | 248 | online | 5 |
Narrative Research | May 31, 2021 | [p 22] | 39 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 8 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 11 |
MQO Research | March 18, 2021 | [p 23] | 38 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 6 | ±4.9 pp | 400 | telephone (rolling) | 7 |
Narrative Research | February 17, 2021 | [p 24] | 35 | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 3 |
Narrative Research | November 22, 2020 | [p 25] | 41 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 6 | ±3.5 pp | 800 | telephone (rolling) | 13 |
Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020) | |||||||||||
Election 2020 | September 14, 2020 | HTML | 39.3 | 34.4 | 15.2 | 9.2 | 1.7 | — | — | 4.9 | |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead | |||||
PC | Liberal | Green | PA | NDP |
The following sitting MLAs have announced that they would not seek re-election:
Progressive Conservative
Liberal
Independent
Legend
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Restigouche West | Gilles LePage [43] | Myriam Cormier [44] | Gilles LePage | |||||||||||
Restigouche East | Guy Arseneault [43] | Guy Arseneault Campbellton-Dalhousie | ||||||||||||
Belle-Baie-Belledune | Marco LeBlanc [43] | Marco LeBlanc Restigouche-Chaleur | ||||||||||||
Bathurst | René Legacy [43] | Robert Kryszko [44] | René Legacy Bathurst West-Beresford | |||||||||||
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit | Luc Robichaud [45] |
Susan Holt# Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore | ||||||||||||
Caraquet | Isabelle Thériault [43] | Isabelle Thériault | ||||||||||||
Shippagan-Les-Îles | Eric Mallet [43] | Eric Mallet Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou | ||||||||||||
Tracadie | Keith Chiasson [43] | Serge Brideau [44] | Keith Chiasson Tracadie-Sheila |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Miramichi Bay-Neguac | Réjean Savoie [46] | Sam Johnston [47] | Réjean Savoie | |||||||||||
Miramichi East | Michelle Conroy [48] | Veronique Arsenault [49] | Michelle Conroy Miramichi | |||||||||||
Miramichi West | Mike Dawson [50] | Mark Hambrook [51] | Mike Dawson Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Kent North | Carl Cosby [52] | Kevin Arseneau [44] | Carole Boudreau [53] | Kevin Arseneau | ||||||||||
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent | Benoît Bourque [43] | Benoît Bourque Kent South | ||||||||||||
Shediac Bay-Dieppe | Robert Gauvin [43] | Chantal Landry [44] | Robert Gauvin | |||||||||||
Shediac-Cap-Acadie | Jacques LeBlanc [43] | Jean Bourgeois [44] | Jacques LeBlanc Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé | |||||||||||
Tantramar | Megan Mitton [44] | Megan Mitton Memramcook-Tantramar | ||||||||||||
Dieppe-Memramcook | Jacques Giguère [44] |
Richard Losier† Dieppe | ||||||||||||
Moncton East | Paolo Andreetti [54] | Alexandre Cédric Doucet [55] | Daniel Allain† [33] | |||||||||||
Moncton Centre | David Melanson [56] | Rob McKee [43] | Rob McKee | |||||||||||
Moncton South | Greg Turner [57] | Claire Johnson [43] | Rebecca Rogers [58] | Greg Turner Moncton South | ||||||||||
Merged district | ||||||||||||||
Sherry Wilson# Moncton Southwest | ||||||||||||||
Moncton Northwest | Ernie Steeves [59] | Ana Santana [44] | Ernie Steeves | |||||||||||
Champdoré-Irishtown | Lyne Chantal Boudreau [60] | New district | ||||||||||||
Riverview | Sarah Lord [61] | Bruce Fitch† | ||||||||||||
Albert-Riverview | Sherry Wilson [62] | Dave Gauthro [43] |
Mike Holland†
[38] Albert | |||||||||||
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills | Don Monahan [63] | Brian Boucher [44] |
Ross Wetmore†
[40] Gagetown-Petitcodiac |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Sussex-Three Rivers | Tammy Scott-Wallace [50] | Tammy Scott-Wallace Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins | ||||||||||||
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins | Faytene Grasseschi [64] | John Herron [65] | Laura Myers [44] | Peter Graham [66] | Vacant Hampton | |||||||||
Quispamsis | Blaine Higgs [67] | Alex White [68] | Blaine Higgs | |||||||||||
Rothesay | Ted Flemming [50] | Alyson Townsend [69] | Zara MacKay-Boyce [44] | Ted Flemming | ||||||||||
Saint John East | David Alston [70] | Gerald Irish [44] | Josh Floyd [71] | Glen Savoie | ||||||||||
Saint John Portland-Simonds | John Dornan [72] | Vacant Portland-Simonds | ||||||||||||
Saint John Harbour | David Hickey [43] | Mariah Darling [44] | Vacant | |||||||||||
Saint John West-Lancaster | Joanna Killen [44] |
Dorothy Shephard† Saint John Lancaster | ||||||||||||
Kings Centre | Bill Oliver [50] | Bruce Dryer [44] | Nicholas Green [71] | Bill Oliver | ||||||||||
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville | Patty Borthwick [43] |
Andrea Anderson-Mason† Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West | ||||||||||||
Saint Croix | Kathy Bockus [73] | Troy Lyons [74] | Mark Groleau [75] | Kathy Bockus |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Oromocto-Sunbury | Mary Wilson [50] | Stephen Horsman [76] | Tim Thompson [44] | Mary Wilson Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton | ||||||||||
Fredericton-Grand Lake | Kris Austin [50] | Ken Washburn [44] | Kris Austin | |||||||||||
Fredericton-Lincoln | David Coon [44] | New district | ||||||||||||
Fredericton South-Silverwood | Nicolle Carlin [77] | Susan Holt [78] | Simon Ouellette [44] | New district | ||||||||||
Fredericton North | Jill Green [79] | Luke Randall [43] | Anthea Plummer [44] | Glen Davis [80] | Jill Green | |||||||||
Fredericton-York | Ryan Cullins [50] | Tanya Whitney [43] | Pam Allen-LeBlanc [44] | Michael Broderick [81] | Ryan Cullins | |||||||||
Hanwell-New Maryland | Judy Wilson-Shee [82] | Susan Jonah [44] | New district | |||||||||||
Carleton-York | Richard Ames [83] | Chris Duffie [84] | Burt Folkins [44] | Richard Ames |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive Conservatives | Liberal | Green | PANB | NDP | Other | |||||||||
Woodstock-Hartland | Bill Hogan [50] | Bill Hogan Carleton | ||||||||||||
Carleton-Victoria | Margaret Johnson [50] | Margaret Johnson | ||||||||||||
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin | Chuck Chiasson [43] | Chuck Chiasson Victoria-La Vallée | ||||||||||||
Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières | Roger Quimper [85] | Jean-Claude D'Amours [43] | Jean-Claude D'Amours Edmundston-Madawaska Centre | |||||||||||
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston | Michel Morin [86] | Francine Landry [43] | Tanya Roberts [71] | Francine Landry |